Monday Report
Utah Economic Snapshot January 21st 2008





Utah Economic Snapshot - First Six Months

Utah Labor Market Indicators - Dec 2007 (Nov 07)

  • Employment Growth: 3.2% (3.2%)
  • Employment Increase: 44,800 (48,900)
  • Unemployment Rate: 3.2% (2.8%)

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 1/15/08

U.S. Labor Market Indicators - Dec 2007 (Nov 07)

  • Employment Growth: 0.9% (1.0%)
  • Unemployment Rate: 5.0% (4.7%)

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 1/15/08


Where Are the New Jobs? - Dec 2007

  • State Total (Market Share) 13,906 +3.6%
  • Salt Lake County (48.3%) 9,431 +3.8%
  • Utah County (14.9%) 9,431 +4.0%
  • Davis County (8.1%) -390 +2.2%
  • Weber County (7.6%) 706 +2.6%
  • Washington County (4.2%) +398 -4.0%
  • Cache County (4.0%) 507 +2.3%
  • Summit County (1.9%) 4,806 +5.5%
  • Box Elder County (1.7%) 54 +7.0%
  • Iron County (1.4%) -9 -0.8%
  • Tooele County (1.2%) -183 +4.5%
  • Uintah County (1.1%) 91 +4.7%

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 1/15/08

What are our new Jobs? - Dec 2007

  • State Total 1,356,500 +2.4%
  • Specialty Trade Contractors 4,900 +7.2%
  • Health Services and Social Assistance 4,200 +3.9%
  • Accommodation and Food Services 3,400 +3.7%
  • Food Services and Drinking Places 3,100 +4.1%
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 2,800 +4.4%
  • Other Local Government 2,300 +5.0%
  • Ambulatory Health Care Services 2,000 +4.7%
  • Heavy and Civil Engineering 2,000 +19.6%
  • Finance and Insurance 1,500 +2.7%
  • Architectural, Engineering & Related 1,300 +10.6%
  • Administration & Support & Waste Mgm't & Remediation 1,300 +1.7%
  • Transportation & Warehousing 1,200 +2.5%
  • Computer and Electronic Products 1,200 +9.3%

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 1/15/08

Where are we losing new jobs? - Dec 2007

  • Business Support Services (-1,200) -7.0%
  • Employment Services (-500) -1.8%
  • Transportation and Equipment Manufacturing (- 300) -1.6%

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 1/15/08

Economic Snapshot - First Six Months (5 mos) (4 mos) FY2008

Utah State Government

  • Sales and Use Taxes (Gen Gov't) -2.2% (+1.9%) (+1.2%)
  • Individual Income Taxes (Education) +7.7% (+5.6%) (+8.1%)
  • Individual Income Tax Withholding (Education) +8.6% (+7.4%) (+10.9%)
  • Corporate Franchise Taxes (Gen Gov't) -2.4% (-6.7%) (-11.7%)
  • Motor Fuel Taxes (Transportation) +1.9% (+1.6%) (+1.3%)
  • Severance Taxes (Gen Gov't) -6.1% (-2.4%) (-10.7%)
  • Wine and Liquor Taxes (Education) -11.0% (+11.5%) (-49.4%)

Source: Utah State Tax Commission, TC-23 1/15/07

Economic Snapshot - First Six Months (5 mos) (4 mos) FY2008

Local Government

  • Transient Room Tax +19.1% (+41.3%) (+1.2%)
  • Tourism, Recreation, Cultural, Convention +9.9% (+10.1%) (+23.2%)
  • Municipal Telecommunications License +17.3% (+21.6%) (+1.2%)
  • Emergency Services Phone Charge +9.9% (+12.3%) (+1.2%)
  • Public Transit +37.8% (+40.2%) (+1.2%)

Source: Utah State Tax Commission, TC-23 1/15/07

The Ten Things Everyone Should Know About Science Part VIII

  • You may be able to quote Shakespeare, but what are you like on Big Bang theory?
  • The Financial Times gives non-scientifically minded readers a leg up the tree of knowledge.

Atoms and nuclear reactions

  • The atom is the basic building block of chemistry.
  • The name comes from the Greek atomos, meaning indivisible, though an atom can be split into even smaller particles. It has a nucleus made up of a positively charged protons and electrically neutral neutrons, surrounded by a cloud of negatively charged electrons. (The fact that protons and neutrons are made up of smaller subatomic particles, called quarks, matters little in the real world.) The chemical character of an atom depends above all on the number of protons in its nucleus - its atomic number - which defines it as a chemical element. The best- known representation of the elements, arranged by atomic number and denoted by a one- or two-letter symbol, is the periodic table originally drawn up by Dmitri Mendeleev in the 19th century.
  • Each element can exist as different isotopes, depending on how many neutrons there are. The nucleus can only remain stable up to a certain size. If it is too big, or if the balance between protons and neutrons is wrong, the atom will undergo radioactive decay and split into smaller pieces.
  • The simplest example is element number one, hydrogen. It has two stable isotopes, in which the nucleus contains either a proton on its own or a proton and a neutron; the third isotope (tritium) is an unstable and therefore radioactive combination of a proton and two neutrons.
  • Most elements up to number 83 (bismuth) have at least one stable isotope. Heavier elements such as uranium (92) and plutonium (94) exist only in radioactive forms. Nuclear reactions, which either join together light atoms (fusion) or split heavy ones (fission), can release vast amounts of energy - either suddenly, in nuclear weapons, or more gradually, in power stations.
    Why does it matter?
  • Nuclear energy has not lived up to its initial promise, half a century ago, when the first atomic power stations were opening and enthusiasts had a vision of nuclear-generated electricity ''too cheap to meter''. But nuclear power is a key ingredient in the world's energy balance - and, unfortunately, it seems that nuclear weapons are here to stay.
    What's next?
  • All nuclear power currently depends on fission. But the great hope is nuclear fusion, the subject of a $10bn experiment, International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (Iter), which is under construction in France.
    Fear factor: dry mouth
    What's next? - Molecules and chemical reactions
Source: The Financial Times, 2008


Utah Economic Snapshot

  • First six months.
  • How are we doing with Jobs?
  • Where are the new jobs?
  • What will be the impact on municipal budgets?
  • What will the Utah Ligislature have to spend?

The Ten Things Everyone Should Know About Science, Pt VIII

Bob Springmeyer

Bonneville Research

    • Global Business Confidence
    • Business confidence is weak and fragile. Sentiment in the U.S. is as dour as it has been in the five years of the survey and consistent with a contracting economy. Businesses elsewhere across the globe, particularly in Asia, are more upbeat, although measurably less so when compared to prior to the subprime financial shock. Confidence is weakest among real estate firms and financial institutions, but it has declined considerably in recent weeks among business service firms and even heretofore more optimistic manufacturers. Pricing pressures have risen with oil prices near $100 per barrel, but remain very subdued compared to the pressures that prevailed during previous oil price spurts.
    • Consumer Price Index
    • The rate of overall CPI inflation decreased by a slight amount in December, from 4.3% to 4.1% on a year-ago basis. The annualized rate of CPI inflation stayed level at 5.6%. Core inflation, however, increased slightly from 2.3% to 2.4% on a year-ago basis. While core inflation is again testing the upper- bound of the Fed's comfort range, the high risk of recession negates the need for anti-inflation policy action.
    • Treasury International Capital Flows
    • Net long-term TIC flows fell to $90.0 billion in November from $114 billion the prior month.
    • California Manufacturing Survey
    • The fourth quarter purchasing managers' index for California indicated an expanding factory sector in the state despite continuous housing woes and overall economic weakness. Nevertheless, at 53.5, the index represents a decreased rate of expansion from the previous quarter.
    • Industrial Production
    • Industrial production was unchanged in December following a 0.3% increase in November. Output in manufacturing held steady, besting expectations for a moderate decline. Mining and utility output was little changed, although a marginal decline in the latter was the first negative reading since September. Capacity utilization slipped to 81.4% from 81.6%. Overall, a weak month for the industrial sector, but not as bad as initially feared.
    • PPI
    • Producer prices for finished goods fell by a slight 0.1% in December, as prices for finished energy products gave up some of their November gains. As a result, topline PPI rose by 6.3% over 2007 as a whole. Excluding food and energy products, core PPI rose by 0.2% in December, and 2.0% for the year. Inflation remains much stronger at earlier stages of processing where prices for core intermediate goods rose by 4.6% on the year while prices for core crude goods rose by 3.6%.
    • Business Inventories (MTIS)
    • Total business inventories increased by 0.4% in November. Inventories at retailers were down 0.1%. Total business sales were up 1.6%. The total I/S ratio was down to 1.24, from 1.26 previously.
    • NAHB Housing Market Index
    • The NAHB Housing Market Index increased by only one point in January, from a revised value of 18 in December to 19 with the current release. Prospective buyer traffic increased by one point from 13 to 14, while six-month expectations increased by two points from 26 in December. While the historical value of the indices remains low, this is the second month in which they have remained level and so one hopes that the housing market has bottomed out.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
    • The composite market index increased by 28.4% over the previous week. Growth in the purchase index was lower but still strong at 11.4%. Refinance applications jumped by 43.4%. The overall level of applications has almost returned to its early December value, although whether or not it will stabilize is still an open question.
    • Chain Store Sales
    • Chain store sales were very soft in the week ending January 12 according to the ICSC. Sales fell 0.9% and year-over-year growth fell to 1.1%, the weakest growth since July 2003. Warm, wet weather reportedly compounded economic problems to cause the poor performance.
    • Retail Sales (MARTS)
    • Total retail sales fell 0.4% in December, reversing a small portion of November's outsized 1.0% gain (downwardly revised from 1.2%). Non-auto sales fell at the same rate after an even bigger 1.7% gain in November (originally 1.8%). Given seasonal adjustment difficulties, the 0.7% growth in ex auto sales over the two months does suggest continued modest spending growth.
    • Oil and Gas Inventories
    • Crude oil inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels for the week ending January 11 according to the Energy Information Administration, exceeding expectations of a 1.2 million barrel build. Distillate supplies rose by 1.1 million barrels, in line with expectations. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.2, also in line with expectations. Refinery operating capacity plummeted last week to 87.1% from 91.3%. This report is bearish.

    Source: Economy.com 2008

    • Chili's
    • Brinker International trades as Chili's at 1,361 locations nationwide and internationally.
    • The full- service casual restaurants occupy spaces of 5,447 sq.ft. in freestanding locations.
    • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
    • Preferred sites include regional centers with a minimum GLA of 250,000 sq.ft.
    • Preferred cotenants include big box anchors, Wal*Mart, Target, Lowe's Home Improvement, Home Depot, Costco, Sam's Club and movie theaters.
    • For more information, contact
      • Shannon White,
      • Brinker International,
      • 6820 LBJ Freeway,
      • Dallas, TX 75240;
      • 972-980-9917,
      • Fax 972-770-9467
      • Web site: www.brinker.com.
    • On the Border
    • Brinker International trades as On the Border at 158 locations nationwide.
    • The Mexican restaurants occupy spaces of 6,032 sq.ft. in endcaps and freestanding locations.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing market during the coming 18 months.
    • Preferred sites include regional centers with a minimum GLA of 450,000 sq.ft.
    • Preferred cotenants include big box anchors, Wal*Mart, Lowe's Home Improvement, Target, Home Depot, Costco, Sam's Club and movie theaters.
    • For more information, contact
      • Shannon White,
      • rinker International,
      • 6820 LBJ Freeway,
      • Dallas, TX 75240;
      • 972-980-9917,
      • Fax 972- 770-9467;
      • Web site: www.brinker.com.
    • Norwalk - The Furniture Idea
    • Norwalk Furniture Inc. trades as Norwalk - The Furniture Idea at 60 locations nationwide and throughout Canada.
    • The stores, offering custom furniture and upholstery along with home accessories, occupy spaces of 4,500 sq.ft. in lifestyle, specialty and strip centers as well as freestanding locations.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing markets during the coming 18 months.
    • A land area of one acre is required for freestanding locations.
    • Typical leases run five years.
    • Specific improvements are required.
    • Preferred demographics include a population of 150,000 within a five-mile radius earning an average household income of $50,000.
    • The company is franchising.
    • For more information, contact
      • Mike Turbeville,
      • Norwalk Furniture Inc.,
      • 100 Furniture Parkway,
      • Norwalk, OH 44857;
      • 888- 667-9255,
      • Fax 419-744-3212;
      • Email: mturbeville@nfcorp.com;
      • Web site: www.norwalkfurnitureidea.com.
    • Culvers Frozen Custard
    • Culvers Frozen Custard operates 372 locations throughout AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, ND, NE, OH, SD, TX, WI and WY.
    • The restaurants occupy spaces of 3,800 sq.ft. to 4,800 sq.ft. in freestanding locations.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing markets, excluding AZ, during the coming 18 months.
    • The company requires a land area of 50,000 sq.ft. and prefers to build its own sites.
    • For more information, contact
      • Tom Goldsmith,
      • Culvers Frozen Custard,
      • 540 Water Street,
      • Prairie Du Sac, WI 53578;
      • 608-644- 2143,
      • Fax 608-644-2163;
      • Web site: www.culvers.com.
    • Grease Monkey
    • Grease Monkey International trades as Grease Monkey at 240 locations nationwide and in Mexico.
    • The automotive service centers occupy spaces of 2,300 sq.ft. in freestanding locations.
    • Plans call for 20 openings throughout the existing markets during the coming 18 months.
    • Typical leases run 20 years.
    • Major competitors include Jiffy Lube and Valvoline.
    • Preferred cotenants include grocery chains.
    • A land area of 0.5 acres to one acre is required.
    • For more information, contact
      • Mike Brunetti,
      • 7100 East Belleview Avenue, Suite 305,
      • Greenwood Village, CO 80111;
      • 303-308-1660,
      • Fax 303-308-5906;
      • Email: franchiseinfo@greasemonkeyintl.com;
      • Web site: www.greasemonkeyintl.com.

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