Monday Report
Inventory of Existing Homes for Sale January 7th 2008

Economic Notes:



Existing Homes Listed for Sale

Salt Lake County represents 46% of the Wasatch Front current inventory of the listed existing homes market.

Utah County follows at 26%.

Davis and Weber Counties tie at 14%.
RankZIP City# Current Residential Listings# Units Sold 2006# Units Sold 2002# Months of Inventory at 2002 Sales Level
184057Orem 1,254339231 50.9
284049Lehi 703------
384020Draper 627808----
484095South Jordan527705 39616.0
584404Farr West/Harrisville4981,169 6429.3
684065 Riverton4131,133 532 9.3
784003American Fork400505 35413.6
884096 Herriman383-- ----
984005Eagle Mountain381---- --
1084401 Marriott/Slaterville377 67533113.0
1184084West Jordan3651,110 7266.0
1284015 Clearfield3641,332 711 6.1
1384062Pleasant Grove358458 33113.0
1484121 Cottonwood350517 471 8.9
1584018 Taylorsville/Kearns338 1,3139054.5
1684088West Jordan334901 5237.7
1784041 Layton330804 4478.9
1884075 Syracuse278580 22814.6
1984045Saratoga Springs272---- --
2084403 South Ogden270611 4906.6
2184060Spanish Fork251272 30210.0
2284414North Ogden250465 27410.9
2384120West Valley250784 4846.2
2484092 Sandy248497 4456.7
2584067 Roy248880 6064.9

Source: Wasatch Front Regional Multiple Listing Service, 1/05/08

  • Only four of the top fifteen zip codes by months of inventory registered any sales in 2006 - likely because they are new zip code areas.
  • Orem (84058) and Riverdale/Ogden (84405) are at the median level of months of inventory at 9.7 months.
  • Copperton (84006) has the lowest level of months of inventory at 3.0.
  • Orem (84057) has the highest number of current listings at 1,154 and the highest level of months of inventory at 59.9.
  • Clearfield (84015) and Taylorsville/Kearns (84118) had the highest number of 2006 sales at 1,332 and 1,313 respectively and have six months or less of inventory.

The Ten Things Everyone Should Know About Science Part VI

  • You may be able to quote Shakespeare, but what are you like on Big Bang theory?
  • The Financial Times gives non-scientifically minded readers a leg up the tree of knowledge.

    Atoms and nuclear reactions

  • The atom is the basic building block of chemistry.
  • The name comes from the Greek atomos, meaning indivisible, though an atom can be split into even smaller particles. It has a nucleus made up of a positively charged protons and electrically neutral neutrons, surrounded by a cloud of negatively charged electrons. (The fact that protons and neutrons are made up of smaller subatomic particles, called quarks, matters little in the real world.) The chemical character of an atom depends above all on the number of protons in its nucleus - its atomic number - which defines it as a chemical element. The best- known representation of the elements, arranged by atomic number and denoted by a one- or two-letter symbol, is the periodic table originally drawn up by Dmitri Mendeleev in the 19th century.
  • Each element can exist as different isotopes, depending on how many neutrons there are. The nucleus can only remain stable up to a certain size. If it is too big, or if the balance between protons and neutrons is wrong, the atom will undergo radioactive decay and split into smaller pieces.
  • The simplest example is element number one, hydrogen. It has two stable isotopes, in which the nucleus contains either a proton on its own or a proton and a neutron; the third isotope (tritium) is an unstable and therefore radioactive combination of a proton and two neutrons.
  • Most elements up to number 83 (bismuth) have at least one stable isotope. Heavier elements such as uranium (92) and plutonium (94) exist only in radioactive forms. Nuclear reactions, which either join together light atoms (fusion) or split heavy ones (fission), can release vast amounts of energy - either suddenly, in nuclear weapons, or more gradually, in power stations.
    Why does it matter?
  • Nuclear energy has not lived up to its initial promise, half a century ago, when the first atomic power stations were opening and enthusiasts had a vision of nuclear-generated electricity ''too cheap to meter''. But nuclear power is a key ingredient in the world's energy balance - and, unfortunately, it seems that nuclear weapons are here to stay.
    What's next?
  • All nuclear power currently depends on fission. But the great hope is nuclear fusion, the subject of a $10bn experiment, International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (Iter), which is under construction in France.
    Fear factor: dry mouth
    What's next? - Molecules and chemical reactions

    Source: Financial Times, London, 2007

  • This Weeks Leads

    • Museum Quality Framing
    • Museum Quality Framing operates 50 locations throughout OR and WA.
    • The stores, selling picture frames, occupy spaces of 1,000 sq.ft. in endcaps of strip centers as well as freestanding locations.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout WA (close! Might be worth a try!) during the coming 18 months, with representation by Cascade Commercial Properties, LLC.
    • Typical leases run five years. Preferred cotenants include supermarkets.
    • For more information, contact
      • John Zunick,
      • Cascade Commercial Properties, LLC,
      • 11-105th Avenue Southeast, Suite 8,
      • Bellevue, WA 98004;
      • 425-452-9292,
      • Fax 425-452-0808;
      • Email: johnz@cascadecommercial.com;
      • Web site: www.cascadecommercial.com.
    • If we didn't have a "Public Monopoly" - ABC Fine Wines & Spirits
    • ABC Liquors, Inc. trades as ABC Fine Wines & Spirits at 180 locations throughout FL.
    • The stores, selling gourmet food and gift baskets along with wine, occupy spaces of 12,000 sq.ft. in power centers as well as freestanding locations.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing market during the coming 18 months.
    • A vanilla shell is required.
    • Preferred cotenants include supermarkets, Target and Wal*Mart.
    • Preferred demographics include a population of 65,000 within a three-mile radius earning an average household income of $65,000.
    • For more information, contact
      • Thomas Hartmann,
      • ABC Liquors, Inc.,
      • PO Box 593688,
      • Orlando, FL 32859;
      • 407-851- 0000,
      • Fax 407-857-5500;
      • Email: tomh@abcfws.com;
      • Web site: www.abcfinewineandspirits.com.
    • Cobs Bread
    • Baker's Delight trades as Cobs Bread at 58 locations throughout Seattle, WA and Canada.
    • The bakeries occupy spaces of 1,000 sq.ft. in regional malls and strip centers.
    • Plans call for 30 to 40 openings throughout the existing market, including Edmonton, Toronto and Vancouver.
    • Typical leases run five to 10 years.
    • The company prefers to locate near produce stores in middle- to upper income neighborhoods.
    • For more information, contact
      • John Gilson,
      • Baker's Delight,
      • 230-4664 Lougheed Highway,
      • Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada V5C 5T5;
      • 604-296-3500,
      • Fax 604-294- 6400;
      • Email: john.gilson@cobsbread.com;
      • Web site: www.cobsbread.com.
    • Maidenform
    • Maidenform operates 80 locations nationwide and in Puerto Rico.
    • The women's intimate apparel stores occupy spaces of 2,200 sq.ft. in outlet centers.
    • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide, excluding the Midwestern region, during the coming 18 months.
    • Typical leases run five years.
    • A vanilla shell and specific improvements are required.
    • For more information, contact
      • Lynn Mancini-Weiner,
      • Maidenform,
      • 485 F Route 1 South, Iselin, NJ 08830;
      • 203-881-9926,
      • Fax 203-881-9929;
      • Email: lweiner@maidenform.com;
      • Web site: www.maidenform.com.
    • Mark Shale
    • Al Baskin Co. trades as Mark Shale at eight locations throughout GA, IL, MO and TX.
    • The upscale men's and women's apparel stores occupy spaces of 12,000 sq.ft. to 20,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations, regional malls and urban/downtown areas.
    • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
    • For more information, contact
      • Scott Baskin,
      • Al Baskin Co.,
      • 10441 Beaudin Boulevard, Suite 100,
      • Woodridge, IL 60517;
      • 312- 440-0720;
      • Web site: www.markshale.com.
    • Dairy Queen and Orange Julius Treat Center
    • International Dairy Queen, Inc. trades as Dairy Queen and Orange Julius Treat Center at 413 locations nationwide.
    • The soft ice cream and smoothie shops occupy spaces of 600 sq.ft. to 800 sq.ft. in entertainment, lifestyle, outlet and specialty centers, as well as malls and downtown/urban locations.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing market during the coming 18 months.
    • Typical leases run 10 years.
    • A vanilla shell is required.
    • Major competitors are cited as Cold Stone Creamery and Jamba Juice.
    • For more information, contact
      • Martha Rothenberger,
      • International Dairy Queen, Inc.,
      • 7505 Metro Boulevard,
      • Minneapolis, MN 55439-0286;
      • 952-896-2517,
      • Fax 952-830- 0450;
      • Email: martha.rothenberger@idq.com;
      • Web site: www.dairyqueen.com.


    Inventory of Existing Homes for Sale

    • Where they are?
    • How many months of inventory?

    The Ten Things Everyone Should Know About Science, Pt VI

    Bob Springmeyer

    Bonneville Research

  • Economic Notes:
  • Economic Notes:

    • Global Business Confidence
    • Global business sentiment ended 2007 weak and fragile. It fell sharply with last summer's subprime financial shock and has never recovered. U.S. businesses are particularly on edge; American confidence is consistent with a contracting economy. Expectations regarding the first half of 2008 are especially bleak, falling to a record low last week on a four-week moving average basis. Businesses have also become notably cautious with respect to their inventories and office space needs. Hiring and fixed investment are soft, but holding up better. Pricing pressures have risen with oil prices near $100 per barrel, but remain very subdued compared to the pressures that prevailed during previous oil price spurts.
    • Global Semiconductor Billings
    • Global semiconductor sales rose by 0.7% in November to $23.1 billion on a three-month moving average basis. As such, sales remain 2.3% higher than in November 2006. Excluding the Americas, sales rose in all regions of the world during the month.
    • ISM Index
    • Manufacturing activity contracted in December with the ISM index falling 3.1 points to 47.7. This marks the sixth consecutive decline in the index; the last time this occurred was between 2000 and 2001. Also, the latest decline puts the ISM below its expansionary threshold of 50 for the first time since January. With business confidence fragile and uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook growing, it is clear that manufacturers are letting final demand set the pace of production. Today's report provides additional support for further Fed easing.
    • ISM Non-Mfg Index
    • The non-manufacturing business activity index moderately decreased in December, falling to 53.9%. Nevertheless, this number was above both consensus expectations and the Moody's Economy.com forecast.
    • Factory Orders (M3)
    • New orders for manufactured goods rose 1.5% in November, triple the consensus expectation for a 0.5% increase. New orders for October were revised up to show a 0.7% gain from the originally published 0.5% increase. Shipments rose 1.5% as well following a 1.2% increase in October. Unfilled orders rose 1% over the month and inventories posted an 0.8% gain. The I/S ratio fell to 1.22 months down from 1.23 in October.
    • Monster Employment Index
    • The Monster Employment Index fell by 14 points in December, clocking in at 169 compared to 183 in November. December's index reading represents just over 1% growth from a year ago. The details of the report indicated broad weakening as most industries either declined or did not report an increase from November.
    • Initial Jobless Claims
    • Initial jobless claims dropped 21,000 to 336,000 for the week ending December 29, against expectations for them to remain relatively flat. This is likely due to calendar effects, and not necessarily a downshift in the pace of layoffs.
    • Job Cuts - Challenger Report
    • Despite the weakening economy, job cuts are not rising. In December, employers announced only 44,416 cuts, down from 73,140 in November. The December total was also 19% below the figure for December 2006. For all of 2007, 768,264 jobs were eliminated, 8.5% fewer than in 2006 and the lowest total since 2000. Job cuts associated with the housing market have been limited to financial services and announcements abated in November and December.
    • Employment Situation
    • The labor market turned sour in December. Payroll employment increased by only 18,000 in December, well below expectations. Moreover, the unemployment rate increased by 30 basis points to 5.0%. Construction and manufacturing payrolls fell sharply as did retail employment.
    • Construction Spending (C30)
    • Construction spending increased 0.1% in November, above analysts' projections. Private construction declined by 0.7%, hurt by a 2.5% decline in residential construction. However, public construction increased 2.5%.
    • Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
    • The plunge in house prices is accelerating and widening across regions. For the third quarter of this year, the Case-Shiller repeat-purchase house price index is down on a year-ago basis by 4.5%, easily the most severe drop in the 30-plus year history of the index. Conditions in the Pacific West and Mountain states are deteriorating the most, but prices are either depreciating or weakening across the board. Prices are falling faster for homes in the bottom third of the market. The condo market is following trends in the single-family market, although some metro area markets are holding up surprisingly well.
    • Existing Home Sales
    • The November National Association of Realtors report had some good news for the housing market. Existing home sales in November rose 0.4% from October, to 5 million annualized units. The median existing house price was down 3.3% in November from one year ago, compared to a 5.1% year-over-year decline in October. Inventories declined; in November they were 10.3 months of sales, compared to 10.7 months in October.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
    • Mortgage demand decreased 11.6% in the week ending December 28. Purchase applications decreased 8.5% and refinance applications decreased 15.4%. Another week of declining activity suggests improving conditions in the nation's housing market are still not in sight.
    • Chain Store Sales
    • Chain store sales slipped 0.2% in the week ending December 29 and year-over-year growth fell to 2.3%, as comparisons were again difficult. Despite the weak figures, the ICSC reported strong last minute holiday shopping.
    • Oil and Gas Inventories
    • Crude oil inventories fell by 4.0 million barrels for the week ending December 28 according to the Energy Information Administration, below expectations of a 1.7 million barrel decline. Distillate supplies unexpectedly rose by 0.6 million barrels compared with analysts' expectations of a 0.6 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels, above expectations of a 1.3 million barrel build. Refinery operating capacity was 89.4% last week, up 1.3% from the prior week.
    • Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
    • Working gas in underground storage fell by 87 Bcf during the week ending December 28. This is a far smaller draw than was expected; forecasts ranged from -96 to -120 Bcf. Today's report will have a bearish effect on prices.

    Source: Economy.com 2007

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