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SOLSTICE
As the sun and moon renew themselves and
we
honor the closing of circles.
Once again we learn, that even in the darkest
moments.
Health, serenity, and healing are available.
Bless our connections with the ancients.
Bless our connections with each other.
Bless our connections with future generations.
Bless our connections with the circles of the
seasons.
Bless our connections with places of beauty and
solitude.
Celebration is at hand.
Celebrating the renewal of bonds of kinship.
Celebrating the renewal of bonds of friendship.
Celebrating those who have touched our lives.
Celebrating the return of the sun and longer days.
Rejoice
PEACE - GOOD YULE
Adapted from old Danish and Celtic Solstice
Poems
Utah Labor Market Indicators - Nov 2007
(Oct 07)
- Employment Growth: 4.0% (4.3%)
- Employment Increase: 48,900 (52,500)
- Unemployment Rate: 2.8% (2.7%)
Source:
Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 12/18/07
U.S. Labor Market Indicators - Nov 2007
(Oct 07)
- Employment Growth: 1.0% (1.2%)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.7% (4.7%)
Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 12/18/07
Where Are the New Jobs? - Nov
2007
- State Total (Market Share) 48,795 +4.0%
- Salt Lake County (46.4%) 22,663 +3.8%
- Utah County (19.8%) 9,640 +5.2%
- Washington County (5.7%) 2,786 +5.3%
- Weber County (5.5%) 2,692 +2.8%
- Davis County (5.0%) 2,446 +2.4%
- Summit County (3.6%) 1,764 +8.7%
- Uintah County (2.2%) 1,054 +7.6%
- Box Elder County (2.1%) 1,045 +5.3%
- Cache County (2.1%) 1,003 +2.0%
- Tooele County (2.0%) 990 +6.6%
- Duchesne County (1.5%) 717 +10.3%
Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services,
12/18/07
What are our new Jobs? - Nov
2007
- State Total 48,795 +4.0%
- Specialty Trade Contractors 6,500 +9.5%
- Health Services and Social Assistance 4,000
+3.7%
- Accommodation and Food Services 4,000 +4.4%
- Finance and Insurance 2,800 +5.1%
- Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
2,700 +4.2%
- Administration & Support & Waste Mgm't &
Remediation 2,000 +2.5%
- Transportation & Warehousing 1,500 +12.7%
- Ambulatory Health Care Services 1,500 +3.4%
- Architectural, Engineering & Related 1,500
+12.7%
- Heavy and Civil Engineering 1,400 +14.1%
- computer and Electronic Products 1,300 +10.4%
Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 12/18/07
Where are we losing new jobs? - Nov
2007
- Business Support Services (700) -4.1%
- Motion Picture and Sound Recording (500) -10.9%
- Internet Service Providers (400) -4.1%
Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 12/18/07
General Growth Properties expects to complete its
Americana at Brand lifestyle center in Los Angeles
this spring. The center, which features luxury
condominiums, retail, a movie theater and public park,
is across the street from General Growth's Glendale
Galleria regional mall.
Urban Revitalization - Creating a catalyst for
downtown redevelopment Par II
Plan for the best
- Sadly, many of America's urban areas have "died
on the vine", and city and business leaders are now
faced with the tremendous task of revitalizing these
downtown cores. In fact, 62 percent of all major city
population growth in the 1990s occurred along
suburban borders, compared to just 11 percent in city
cores, according to a report from the Brookings
Institution's Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy.
- A lack of investment in the downtown cores
contributed to the decline and now cities across the
nation are trying to figure out how they can take their
urban centers from vacant to vibrant. Experts suggest
three main strategies: create an organization to bring
together business leaders and city officials; design a
masterplan to encourage investment; and develop a
way to leverage any special attractions in the
downtown core.
- Consider Phoenix, Ariz. - in the late 1980s, the
city's core was in "dire straights," according to Don
Keuth, president of the Phoenix Community Alliance, a
non-profit organization that is focused on center city
redevelopment. "Our downtown was really a no man's
land," he recalls. "We didn't have any kind of well-
funded community organization or governmental entity
that stepped up to take ownership."
- That's when several community leaders decided
to create an organization that would be funded by
member dues and whose goal was to foster and
promote redevelopment of Phoenix's urban core. Thus
the Phoenix Community Alliance was born.
- "Our first step was to assess how bad the
situation was," Keuth recalls, adding that the
organization partnered with the Arizona chapter of the
American Institute of Architects to craft a new
masterplan for the multi-block area known as the
Capitol District. Along with all of the state government
buildings, Phoenix's Capitol District also houses most
of the city's human services organizations.
- As part of the revitalization, Phoenix Community
Alliance created a program for the development of
three new state office buildings and partnered with
Maricopa County to develop a $22 million human
services campus that consolidates all the social
service agencies that were spread out over a five-
block area. The cornerstone of the campus is the Day
Resource Center that houses about 20 agencies that
provide a variety of social services including housing
assistance, job training and medical care.
- These revitalization efforts have encouraged
private sector development including the $46 million
headquarters facility for Translational Genomics
Research Institute (TGen), a private, non-profit
research institute and the International Genomics
Consortium (IGC), a private, non-profit medical
research foundation that employs 450 people.
- Like Phoenix, the City of Spokane also created an
organization to lead its urban revitalization. The
organization, dubbed the Downtown Spokane
Partnership, was formed 12 years ago. Its first step
toward revitalization was the creation of the business
improvement district, which is comprised of 1,800
businesses and property owners.
- The Downtown Spokane Partnership is funded by
annual assessment fees and its main function is the
management of the business improvement district,
according to Marty Dickinson, president of Downtown
Spokane Partnership. The business improvement
district keeps the downtown area clean and safe and
it also advocates smart development through its
downtown masterplan.
- Since the inception of the Downtown Spokane
Partnership and the business improvement district,
Spokane's urban core has been completely
transformed. For example, the city's turn-of-the-century
Davenport Hotel was renovated and reopened after
years of neglect, and its historic Fox Theater just had
its grand re-opening last month.
- "We have learned that if you can make your
downtown a clean, safe and inviting place for
residents and visitors, it breeds more revitalization,"
Dickinson adds.
Next Week: Making something special
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Greetings!
Good Yule
Utah Employment
National Employment
- Where are the new jobs?
- What are new
jobs?
The Ten Things Everyone Should Know About
Science, Pt IV
Bob Springmeyer
Bonneville Research
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| The Ten Things Everyone Should Know About Science Part IV |
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The Ten Things Everyone Should Know
About Science Part III
- You may be able to quote Shakespeare, but what
are you like on Big Bang theory?
- The Financial
Times gives non-scientifically minded readers a leg
up the tree of knowledge.
The Ten Things Everyone Should Know
About Science Part IV
- You may be able to quote Shakespeare, but what
are you like on Big Bang theory?
- The Financial
Times gives non-scientifically minded readers a leg
up the tree of knowledge.
Quantum mechanics
- Quantum mechanics grew up alongside relativity
in the early 20th century.
- If anything, quantum mechanics is even more far-
reaching than relativity - and even harder to explain.
Two mutually contradictory quotes from famous
physicists sum up its weirdness and complexity. Niels
Bohr: ''If quantum mechanics hasn't profoundly
shocked you, you haven't understood it.''
- Richard Feynman: ''I think I can safely say that
nobody understands quantum mechanics.''
- Whereas the effects of relativity are felt mainly on
the grand scale studied by astronomers and
cosmologists, quantum mechanics is most important
when things are extremely small. The first key idea in
quantum theory is that energy and matter are not
continuous but come in small, discrete packets:
quanta.
- The second is ''wave-particle duality'': all
subatomic particles can be regarded as waves as
well as particles. Light itself is both a stream of
particles - photons - and a series of waves.
- The most famous consequence of wave-particle
duality is the ''uncertainty principle'' originally
formulated by Werner Heisenberg in 1927, which puts
a limit on how much we can know about a quantum
object. It is impossible to measure precisely and
simultaneously a particle's position and momentum;
the best we can do is define the statistical probability
of where a particle such as an electron is likely to be.
What's next?
- Quantum effects are important in electronics and
nanotechnology - and they will become far more
important as miniaturisation proceeds.
Future developments?
- The most important application in the medium-
term future - say, 30 years from now - may be
quantum computing; this would use quantum effects
to produce computers far more powerful than today's
silicon-based systems.
- A much more distant practical prospect is
teleportation - instantly transferring matter from one
place to another without having to travel through
conventional time and space.
Fear factor: sweat and tears
What's next? - Radiation
Source: Financial Times, London, 2007
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| Utah Economic Snapshot - First Five Months |
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Utah State Government
- Sales and Use Taxes (Gen Gov't)
-1.9% (+1.2%)
- Individual Income Taxes (Education)
+5.6% (+8.1%)
- Individual Income Tax Withholding (Education)
+7.4% (+10.9%)
- Corporate Franchise Taxes (Gen Gov't)
-6.7% (-11.7%)
- Motor Fuel Taxes (Transportation)
+1.6% (+1.3%)
- Severance Taxes (Gen Gov't)
-2.4% (-10.7%)
- Wine and Liquor Taxes (Education)
+11.7% (-49.4%)
Source: Utah State Tax Commission, TC-23
12/21/07
Economic Snapshot - First Five Months (4
mos)
FY2008
Local Government
- Transient Room Tax +41.3%
- Tourism, Recreation, Cultural, Convention
+10.1% (+23.2%)
- Municipal Telecommunications License
+21.6%
- Emergency Services Phone Charge +12.3%
- Public Transit +40.2% (+44.0%)
Source: Utah State Tax Commission, TC-23
12/21/07
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| Economic Notes: |
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- Global Business Confidence
- Global business sentiment is very weak and
fragile. This is particularly true in the U.S. where
confidence slumped last week to its lowest level in the
five years of this survey, and where it is now
consistent with a contracting economy. Expectations
regarding the outlook through mid-2008 are
particularly bleak, and responses regarding sales
strength, inventory investment, and office space are
also soft. Confidence is stronger outside the U.S., but
it has notably weakened across the globe during the
past month. While pricing pressures have risen with
oil prices near $100 per barrel, they remain notably
muted compared to the pressures that prevailed
during previous oil price spurts.
- GDP
- GDP growth in the third quarter saw no revision,
remaining at 4.9% in the final report. This was equal
to the consensus estimate. There was a small
upward revision to consumer spending, offset by a
small downward revision to investment in inventories.
Profits fell slightly in the third quarter. GDP growth in
the third quarter was very strong, but current growth is
much weaker, due to the ongoing collapse in housing
and tighter credit conditions.
- Treasury International Capital Flows
- Net long-term TIC flows climbed sharply to $114
billion in October from only $15.4 billion the previous
month.
- U.S. Treasury Current Account
- The U.S. current account deficit narrowed by 5.5%
to $178.5 billion in the third quarter of 2007, from
$188.9 billion in the previous quarter. The consensus
expected the deficit to narrow to $183.6 billion. The
balance on goods and services narrowed by 3.0% to
$173.2 billion in the third quarter of 2007, from $178.4
billion in the previous quarter.
- Risk of Recession
- With the global financial system unsettled, the
housing correction intensifying and business and
consumer sentiment very fragile, the risk of recession
has increased appreciably since this summer's
subprime financial shock. In November, the Moody's
Economy.com probability of recession increased to
52%, up from October's downwardly revised 44%
(previously 47%) and its highest since 2001. With
risks rising, additional Fed easing is needed to keep
the economy from falling into a recession.
- State Personal Income
- U.S. personal income growth accelerated to 1.4%
in the third quarter following an increase of 0.9% in the
second quarter. In all but 11 states, income growth
either was unchanged or accelerated from the second
quarter. Healthcare, professional/business services
and state/local government contributed the most to
third quarter income growth among industries.
Income declined in the construction and real estate
industries, having a disproportionate impact in
Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada.
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Initial jobless claims jumped above expectations
this week, increasing by 12,000 up to 346,000. Recent
trends in initial claims have been pointing to further
weakening in labor markets.
- NAHB Housing Market Index
- Homebuilder optimism remained unchanged at
19 in December for the third straight month. While this
is a drop of 17 points total since March, the fact that
the index is not falling further offers some hope of
stabilization. Optimism for future traffic decreased
from 17 to 14, while the homebuilders' perspective on
the next six months increased two points.
- New Residential Construction (C20)
- Housing starts decreased 3.7% to 1.187 million
units in November, less than Moody's Economy.com
had expected. Housing permits decreased 1.5%
during the month. Expect the market to remain soft
throughout the year, even with the FOMC lowering the
fed funds rate target by another 25 basis points.
- MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
- Mortgage demand decreased 19.5% in the week
ending December 14. Purchase applications
decreased 10.6% and refinance applications
decreased 27.3%. Application activity took a dramatic
turn for the worse last week, after two weeks of
relatively strong increases.
- Chain Store Sales
- Chain store sales jumped 1.4% in the week
ending December 15, but year-over-year growth
slipped to 2.1%, as comparisons were again difficult.
The ICSC reported that consumers continue to delay
their purchases relative to recent holiday seasons.
- Oil and Gas Inventories
- Crude oil inventories fell by 7.6 million barrels for
the week ending December 14, according to the
Energy Information Administration, well below
expectations of a 1.5 million barrel draw. Distillate
supplies fell by 2.1 million barrels, below expectations
of a 0.5 million barrel build. Gasoline supplies rose by
3.0 million barrels, above expectations of a 0.8 million
barrel build. Refinery capacity utilization fell by 1.0
percentage point to 87.8%, below expectations.
Today's report will bring higher oil prices.
- Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
- Underground storage of natural gas decreased by
121 billion cubic feet during the week ending
December 14. Forecasts called for a draw of 133
billion cubic feet. Since this week's report shows a
smaller-than-expected draw, it will have a bearish
impact on prices.
Source: Economy.com 2007
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| BONNEVILLE RESEARCH - Working with clients to deliver results that endure! |
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Successful client work requires a superior team of
outstanding people working fluidly together.
Bonneville Research is the one firm with the
experience and expertise to help businesses,
governments and nonprofit organizations solve their
toughest problems.
We work to help clients achieve enduring results
and improve the communities in which we live.
BONNEVILLE RESEARCH
Bonneville Research is a Utah-based consulting
firm providing economic, financial, market and policy
research to public and private sector clients
throughout the intermountain west.
Helping Clients Succeed
Our services include:
- Financial Analysis
- Business License Studies
- Impact Fee analysis
- Urban Renewal & Redevelopment
Analysis and Budgets
- Strategy and Policy Analysis
- Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis
- Statistical and Survey Research
- Public Sector Mission Effectiveness
Each of our studies is tailored to address the
unique needs of our clients and their communities.
If we can help, please call or email us at
- Bob
- 801-364-5300
- [email protected]
- Jon
- 801-746-5706
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[email protected]
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