• Global Business Confidence
• Business confidence fell notably during Thanksgiving week. While the lower number of responses during the holiday week may have colored the results, the slide in U.S. business sentiment bears close watching as it is consistent with recession. Responses turned more negative across all nine questions in the survey, with respondents' expectations regarding the six-month outlook falling to a new record low. Businesses are more positive when responding to more specific questions regarding payrolls and equipment investment. Confidence is stronger outside the U.S., most notably in Asia. Sentiment is weakest among firms in housing and financial services, and strongest among high- tech businesses.

• GDP
• There was a larger-than-expected upward revision to economic growth in the third quarter. Annualized real growth was revised up to 4.9% for the quarter, from 3.9% in the advance estimate; the consensus expectation was for an upward revision to 4.8% growth. The overall upward revision came from upward revisions to inventory investment and exports, and a downward revision to imports; there was some offset from a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures. Although the third quarter was very good, underlying growth is below potential due to the problems in housing and mortgage markets. Profits from current production fell an annualized $19 billion in the third quarter.

• Investor Confidence Index
• Tighter credit concerns, increased volatility in equity markets, elevated energy prices and eroding housing markets are weighing heavily on investor optimism. In November, the UBS Index of Investor Optimism plummeted 26 points to fall to 44. The latest decline puts the index at its lowest level since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The Fed's decision to cut interest rates at their past two meetings is doing very little to repair sentiment, which is down 59 points since the beginning of this year.

• New Home Sales (C25)
• Heavy discounting is helping to buoy sales in the new home market, but housing is still not out of the woods. Home sales increased m/m in October by nearly 2% to 728,000 annualized units. On a year-ago basis sales are still down by 24%. Additionally, Census revised downward the September reading. The median house price is down by 13% y/y. Inventories are slowly improving.

• Existing Home Sales
• The October National Association of Realtors report brings more bad news to the housing market. Existing home sales are down by 1.2% from September to 4.97 million annualized units. The median existing house price is down by 5.1% from one year ago, and available inventories are up to near 11 months.

• Home Price Index
• The 10-metro house-price index decreased 5.5% year to year in September. The 20-metro index decreased 4.9%. Virtually all markets in the 20-city index recorded declines from last month and a year ago

• OFHEO Home Price Index
• Confirming trends in the median existing house price and the S&P/Case Shiller price index, OFHEO's repeat-purchase house price index is turning in its worst performance since 1994. In the third quarter of this year, the index is down by 0.4% on a q/q basis, while y/y it is up by 1.8%. The purchase only index is faring about the same. Housing markets remain in a slump.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• Mortgage demand decreased 4.3% in the week ending November 23. Purchase applications increased by 6.1% and refinance applications decreased 15.3%. Caution is to be exercised before reading too much into this Thanksgiving weekend index.

• Durable Goods (Advance)
• Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October following a 1.4% decline in the prior month. Consensus forecasts were expecting a rise in orders. This was the third consecutive drop in durable goods orders. Core capital goods orders fell 2.3% following a 1.2% rise in September. Core capital goods shipments fell 1.2% and total shipments rose 0.6%. Inventories posted a 0.2% gain over the month.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales declined 0.1% in the week ending November 24, but year-over-year growth increased to 2.5%. Colder weather supported demand for apparel. The latest results include Black Friday and the following Saturday. Customer traffic during Black Friday was relatively healthy with consumer electronics reportedly among the strongest sellers.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial jobless claims increased by 32,000 to 352,000, well above expectations. Volatility is a distinct possibility, given the Thanksgiving holiday, but regardless this is the first time initial claims have broken 350,000 since February and thus perhaps an early sign of a more severe deterioration in the labor market.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories fell by 0.4 million barrels for the week ending November 23, according to the Energy Information Administration, less than expectations of a 0.9 million barrel draw. Distillate supplies fell by 0.1 million barrels, short of expectations of a 1.3 million barrel decline. Gasoline supplies rose by 1.4 million barrels, above expectations. Refinery activity rose substantially from 87.0% to 89.4%. Today's report is bearish.

Source: Economy.com 2007

• Hallmark Gold Crown
• Hallmark Cards trades as Hallmark Gold Crown at 3,800 locations nationwide.
• The card and gift shops occupy spaces of 2,500 sq.ft. to 4,500 sq.ft. in regional malls, lifestyle and power centers.
• Plans call for 40 openings nationwide during the coming 18 months.
• Typical leases run five years with a five-year option.
• Specific improvements are required.
• For more information, contact
  • Karen Springer,
  • Hallmark Cards,
  • PO Box 419850,
  • Kansas City, MO 64141;
  • 816-274- 8431,
  • Fax 816-274-3708;
  • Web site: www.hallmark.com.

• The Great Frame Up, Deck The Walls and Framing & Art Center
• Franchise Concepts, Inc. trades as The Great Frame Up, Deck The Walls and Framing & Art Center in 300 locations nationwide and throughout Canada.
• The Great Frame Up, selling art and home décor and offering custom framing services, occupies spaces of 1,200 sq.ft. to 1,700 sq.ft. in community, neighborhood, power and strip centers.
• Deck the Walls, selling art and home décor and offering custom framing services, occupies spaces of 1,200 sq.ft. to 1,700 sq.ft. in malls.
• Framing & Art Center, selling art and home décor and offering custom framing services, occupies spaces of 1,200 sq.ft. to 1,700 sq.ft. in community, neighborhood, power and strip centers, as well as malls, in Canada.
• Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing markets during the coming 18 months.
• Typical leases run 10 years.
• A vanilla shell and specific improvements are required.
• Preferred demographics include a population of 75,000 within a three-mile radius earning an average household income of $90,000.
• Competitors include Michaels.
• The company is franchising.
• For more information, contact
  • Mike Glazer,
  • Franchise Concepts, Inc.,
  • 101 South Hanley Road,
  • Suite 280,
  • St. Louis, MO 63105;
  • 866-719-8200,
  • Fax 314-719- 8290;
  • Web site: www.franchiseconceptsinc.com.