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August Sales #'s
We're Moved! November 12th, 2007


Economic Notes:


 

SCORECARD - August Retail Sales - Top 25 Cities

Gross Taxable Retail Sales - August 2007

  • The "Top Ten" represent 45% of the Statewide market.
  • The "Top Twenty-Five" represent 2/3rds of all retail sales.
  • The "Top 20%" gainers include:
  • Orem Jumped up over West Valley and Sandy to #2!
  • Sandy slips to #4!
  • West Jordan slips from #8 to #11, but joins the "$100 million Club"!
    1. North Salt Lake +44.6%
    2. Lehi +43.8%%
    3. Draper +39.7%
    4. Kaysville +21.8
    5. Kaysville +21.8%
  • Cabella's and Ikea - Lehi and Draper - Three consecutive months of over 40% increases
    1. +43.8% and 39.7% respectively!
  • The "Biggest Losers" include:
    1. South Salt Lake -7.6%
    2. Lindon -4.0%
    3. Murray -2.3%

Source: Utah State Tax Commission, November 2007


August 07 Retail Sales - Top 25 Cities (Large Monthly Filers Only)

Rank CityJuly 2007 (000) % Change 07/06Mkt Share Jul 07 (% of State Total)
1Salt Lake City$464,957+10.9% 12.3%
2Orem $171,918-2.2%4.5%
3West Valley$171,191+0.6% 4.4%
4Sandy $166,953-0.2%4.4%
5St George$145,9690.6% 3.9%
6Murray $141,993-2.3%3.8%
7South Salt Lake$130,653-7.6% 3.5%
8Ogden $103,022+3.3%2.7%
9Layton $101,508+3.6%2.7%
10Provo $101,252+3.6%2.7%
11West Jordan$100,747+1.1% 2.7%
12Draper $60,521+39.7% 1.6%
13Logan $60,196+1.7%1.6%
14Riverdale$57,496 +5.9%1.5%
15Midvale $49,429+2.4%1.3%
16Vernal $48,930+11.9%1.3%
17American Fork$48,754+13.6% 1.3%
18Cedar City$47,609+3.8% 1.3%
19South Jordan$46,882+21.6% 1.2%
20Lehi $45,999+43.8% 1.2%
21Taylorsville $42,700+10.5%1.1%
21Lindon $36,914-4.0%1.0%
23Bountiful$33,914 +2.9%0.9%
24Park City$30,464+13.3% 0.8%
25Cottonwood Heights$28,018+2.1% 0.7%
26Tooele $27,090+8.9%0.7%
27Springville $24,159+1.8%0.6%
28North Salt Lake$23,039+44.6% 0.6%
29Centerville $23,029+4.3%0.6%
30Spanish Fork$23,019+4.1% 0.6%

Source: Utah State Tax Commission, November 2007


  • The "Top 5" Major Sectors represent 50% of the market.
  • The "Top 5" gainers include:
    1. Private Motor Vehicle Sales +55.4%
    2. Health Care +52.6%
    3. Business Services +30.8%
    4. Transportation +39.5%
    5. Finance, Ins & Real Estate +26.7%
  • Categories with declining sales were led by:
    1. Agri, Forestry & Fishing -11.1%
    2. Wholesale - Non Durable -6.2%
    3. Retail Building & Garden -5.9%
    4. Fin.,

Source: Utah State Tax Commission, November 2007


WE'RE MOVED!

  • Phones are now working!
  • The internet connection is now up!
  • Files are mostly still in boxes!
  • But, we're here!

Bonneville Research

Please Note the Changes!

THIS WEEKS LEADS:

  • Fuzziwig's Candy Factory and Sweets From Heaven
  • Fuzziwig's Candy Factory, Inc. trades as Fuzziwig's Candy Factory and Sweets From Heaven at 65 locations nationwide and internationally.
  • The candy stores occupy spaces of 1,000 sq.ft. in malls and lifestyle, outlet and tourist centers, in addition to urban/downtown areas.
  • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run 10 years.
  • A vanilla shell is required.
  • ajor competitors include Sweet Factory.
  • For more information, contact
    • Kayo Folsom,
    • Fuzziwig's Candy Factory, Inc.,
    • 656 Main Street,
    • Durango, CO 81301;
    • 970-247-2770,
    • Fax 970-247-2735;
    • Email: [email protected];
    • Web site: www.fuzziwigs.com.
  • J. Alexander's
  • J. Alexander's Corp. trades as J. Alexander's at 289 locations throughout AL, CO, FL, GA, IL, KS, KY, LA, MI, OH, TN and TX.
  • The fine dining restaurants occupy spaces of 7,500 sq.ft. to 8,000 sq.ft. in specialty centers.
  • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run 15 years.
  • Preferred demographics include a population of 200,000 within a five-mile radius earning an average household income of $90,000.
  • For more information, contact
    • Rick Carson,
    • J. Alexander's Corp.,
    • PO Box 24300,
    • Nashville, TN 37202;
    • 15-269-1917,
    • Fax 615-269-1919;
    • Email: [email protected];
    • Web site: www.jalexanders.com.
  • Mariposa
  • Charles F. Berg, Inc. trades as Mariposa at 34 locations throughout AK, ID, OR, UT, WA and Canada.
  • The women's apparel stores occupy spaces of 3,500 sq.ft. in malls.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing markets during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run 10 years with three, five-year options.
  • Specific improvements are required.
  • Major competitors include Deb Shop, Express, Maurices and Wet Seal.
  • For more information, contact
    • Kal Bains,
    • Charles F. Berg, Inc.,
    • 88 West 1st Avenue,
    • Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, V5Y 3K8;
    • 604-873-6266,
    • Fax 604-873-4561.
  • Pick Up Stix
  • Carlson Restaurants Worldwide trades as Pick Up Stix at 100 locations throughout AZ, CA and NV.
  • The quick-service Chinese restaurants occupy spaces of 2,000 sq.ft. to 2,400 sq.ft. in entertainment, mixed-use, power, specialty and strip centers.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing markets during the coming 18 months.
  • Typical leases run 10 years.
  • Preferred demographics include a population of 75,000 within three miles earning $50,000 as the average household income.
  • Major competitors include Baja Fresh, Chipotle, Daphnes and Pei Wei.
  • The company also trades as T.G.I. Friday's at 800 locations nationwide and internationally. The casual dining restaurants occupy spaces of 5,000 sq.ft. to 7,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and malls, power, specialty and strip centers.
  • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
  • Preferred cotenants include Barnes & Noble and Target.
  • Preferred demographics include a population of 100,000 within five miles earning $65,000 as the average household income.
  • Major competitors include Applebee 's, Bennigans and Chili's.
  • For more information, contact
    • Ed McGraw,
    • Carlson Restaurants Worldwide,
    • 4201 Marsh Lane, Carrollton, TX 75007;
    • 972- 662-4548,
    • Fax 972-662-5501;
    • Email: [email protected].
  • Wish we could!! - The Fresh Market
  • The Fresh Market operates 70 locations throughout the Midwestern and southeastern regions.
  • The markets, offering produce, seafood, wine and beer and bakery departments, in addition to a floral and gift department, occupy spaces of 22,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and power and specialty centers.
  • Growth opportunities are sought throughout Baltimore, MD; northern VA and Washington, DC during the coming 18 months, with presentation by Paraclete Realty, LLC.
  • Major competitors include Whole Foods.
  • For more information, contact
    • Charlie Phelps,
    • Paraclete Realty, LLC, 408 Headquarters Drive, Suite 3C,
    • Millersville, MD 21108;
    • 410- 987-9500,
    • Fax 410-987-9502;
    • Email: [email protected];
    • Web site: www.paracleterealty.com.

Greetings!

In this issue:

  • August 2007 Retail Sales - Top 25 Cities
  • Economic notes
  • This weeks leads

Bob Springmeyer

Bonneville Research


  • Economic Notes:
    • Business Confidence
    • U.S. business confidence remains disconcertingly soft. Confidence is consistent with an economy that is expanding very slowly. Businesses are particularly dour in their broad assessment of current conditions and expectations regarding the six- month outlook remain firmly negative. Businesses remain more upbeat when responding to more specific questions regarding payrolls and especially equipment investment. Confidence is measurably stronger elsewhere, most notably in Asia. Sentiment is weakest among those in housing and financial services, and strongest among high-tech firms. Pricing pressures remain well-contained despite the steady rise in oil and other commodities..
    • Productivity and Costs
    • Nonfarm business productivity growth was very strong in the third quarter, coming in at 4.9% (SAAR), up from 2.2% in the second quarter. This was well above consensus. With the temporary strengthening in the economy in the middle of 2007, productivity growth has improved, and is up 2.4% over the past year. Nonfarm unit labor costs fell an annualized 0.2% in the third quarter; the consensus expected an increase. Despite today's good news, productivity growth is expected to slow, although inflationary pressures from the labor market are scant.
    • Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
    • Wholesale inventories soared by 0.8% in September, crushing consensus expectations of a 0.3% gain. The large increase in inventories comes in succession to a very large upward revision in August wholesale inventories, which rose 0.7% from the initial estimate of 0.1%. Sales rose by 1.3% over the prior month in September as compared to August's upwardly revised 0.8% increase. The inventory-to- sales ratio fell to 1.10 in September.
    • ISM Non-Mfg.Index
    • The non-manufacturing business activity index moderately increased in October, rising to 55.8%. This number was above both consensus expectations and our forecast.
    • Senior Loan Officer Opinion
    • The October Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey from the Federal Reserve indicated that credit standards had tightened since the July survey across nearly every line of business for commercial banks. The only notable exception was credit card loans, where lending standards stayed the same since the summer. The survey reference period (July- September) captures the onset and height of the credit crunch that began in August, and reflects tighter lending standards for both consumers and businesses during the period.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
    • Mortgage demand decreased 1.6% in the week ending November 2. Purchase applications were unchanged and refinance applications decreased 3.2%. If application activity this week is a leading indicator, the housing market is flat.
    • Consumer Credit (G19)
    • Consumer credit increased in September by a very modest $3.7 billion to $2.482 trillion. The details of the report showed that the bulk of the increase was attributed to sturdy demand for revolving credit, which rose 4.4% at an annual rate. Soft demand for big ticket items, namely vehicles, is reflected in the latest report as nonrevolving credit was essentially unchanged over the month.
    • Personal Income
    • Personal income rose 0.4% in September, the same as August and in line with expectations. Spending rose 0.3%, down from 0.5% the prior month and in line with expectations. The core PCE deflator rose a modest 0.2%, the same as the topline deflator. The saving rate rose to 0.9%.
    • Semiconductor Billings
    • Global semiconductor sales rose by 5.0% in September to $22.6 billion on a three-month moving average basis. As such, sales remain 5.9% higher than in September 2006. Sales rose in all regions of the world for the third month in a row, with the strongest growth seen in the Americas and Asia Pacific regions.
    • Factory Orders
    • Factory orders rose unexpectedly in September. A 0.2% increase follows a downwardly revised 3.5% decline in August (previously -3.3%). A 2.1% surge in nondurable bookings offset a 1.7% drop in durable goods orders to leave overall orders up modestly for the month.
    • Employment
    • The economy remains strong according to the latest jobs report. Total payrolls rose by 166,000 and growth in hourly earnings seems measured, not alarming. The unemployment rate remains at 4.7%, indicative of an economy where some slack has already started to develop.
    • Initial Jobless Claims
    • Initial jobless claims retreated even further, dropping 13,000 to 317,000 against expectations for claims to remain relatively flat.
    • Chain Store Sales
    • Chain store sales rose 1.6% in October, the weakest result since August 2004 after adjusting for Easter distortions and the weakest October since 1995. Some of the weakness was due to warmer than normal temperatures in much of the country, although the large number of weights on consumer finances also contributed to the weakness.
    • Oil and Gas Inventories
    • Crude oil inventories fell by 0.8 million barrels for the week ending November 2, according to the Energy Information Administration, in line with expectations. Distillate supplies rose by 0.1 million barrels, above expectations of a 0.4 million barrel draw. Gasoline supplies fell by 0.8 million barrels, above expectations. Refinery activity was unchanged at 86.2%, below expectations. Today's report will not have a measurable impact on prices.

    Source: Economy.com 2007


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      • [email protected]
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      • 801-746-5706
      • [email protected]

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