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Please Note the Changes!
In this issue:
- Economic notes
- This weeks leads
The Health Resources and Services
Administration (HRSA) recently issued the 2007 New
Access Points (NAP) RFP. There is $138,000,000
available over three years (grants to $650,000/year) to
support operations at new primary health care delivery
THE DEADLINE IS DECEMBER 18.
- International Business Confidence
- Global business sentiment slipped last week and
has shown no measurable improvement since falling
sharply during this past summer's subprime financial
shock. Confidence remains consistent with an
economy that is expanding very slowly. Businesses
are particularly dour in the broad assessment of
current conditions. Expectations regarding the six-
month outlook also remain firmly negative. It is
encouraging that businesses are more upbeat when
responding to more specific questions regarding
payrolls and especially equipment investment.
Confidence is weakest in the U.S., followed by
Europe. Asian and South American confidence are
notably stronger. Sentiment is weakest among those
in housing and financial services, and strongest
among high-tech firms.
- Risk of Recession
- The Moody's Economy.com probability of
recession remains elevated. In September, the
probability of recession was 32%, unchanged from
August's downwardly revised 32% (previously 40%).
The risks to the U.S. economy increased appreciably
in August and September, led by tighter credit
conditions, rising mortgage delinquencies, turbulence
in global financial markets and weakening housing
- The Fed
- The FOMC lowered the federal funds rate by 25
basis points to 4.5%, and also lowered the discount
rate by 25 basis points, to 5.0%. The committee cited
an easing in financial market conditions and strong
third quarter growth. However, the housing market
remains a weight on growth, and the FOMC expects
growth to be below potential in the near term. Although
inflation has eased, higher energy prices are a
concern. The statement moved the monetary policy
bias toward neutral, saying that with the fed funds rate
at 4.5%, the risks to the economy are roughly
balanced between upside and downside. One
member voted to hold the fed funds rate steady at
- Economic growth was above potential in the third
quarter, with real GDP increasing 3.9% at an
annualized pace, up just a bit from 3.8% in the second
quarter. This is well above the consensus expectation
for 3.0% growth in the third quarter. Real GDP has
increased 2.6% over the preceding year. Most
components contributed to strong growth in the third
quarter, with residential construction the major
exception. Growth was stronger than in the second
quarter due to consumer spending and exports, with
imports, homebuilding and slower growth in
nonresidential construction offsetting much of this.
Despite the strong third quarter number, the economy
remains soft, with trend growth below potential due to
the continued drag from the housing market and now
- The Conference Board Consumer
- e Conference Board index of consumer
confidence fell in October to 95.6 from a downwardly
revised 99.5 in September (previously 99.8). This put
the index at its lowest level since October 2005. The
decline was led by the expectations component,
although the present situation also declined.
Assessments of labor market conditions
- Consumer Comfort Index
- Consumer confidence remains fragile. According
to the ABC News/Washington Post consumer comfort
index, consumer sentiment inched two points higher
to -15 in the week ending October 28. Despite the
improvement, confidence remains well below the
levels seen prior to the global financial events that
took place in August.
- S&P/Case-Shiller Monthly Home Price
- Housing continues to take a hit. The 10-metro
house S&P Case-Shiller house price index decreased
5% year to year in August. This is the worst reading
since April 1991. The 20-metro index decreased 4.4%.
The m/m declines are deepening, as tighter lending
standards and a weakening economy put downward
pressure on demand.
- Employer Cost Index
- Employer costs rose 0.8% in the third quarter of
2007, slightly below expectations of a 0.9% increase.
This report was generally upbeat as benefit costs
moderated. Also, growth in wages and salaries rose
0.8% for the second consecutive quarter. This is good
news for as the Fed as it is concerned about the threat
of wage-based inflationary pressures. Therefore,
today's report, coupled with recent data on consumer
prices, provides the Fed plenty of maneuverability to
cut interest rates.
- Construction Spending (C30)
- Construction spending increased 0.3% in
September, above analysts' projections. Private
construction declined by 0.2%, hurt by a 1.4% decline
in residential construction. In addition, public
construction increased 1.9%.
- Agricultural Prices
- The all farm index of prices received by farmers in
October rose 0.7% from the previous month. Crop
prices are up 4.9%, but livestock prices reversed last
month's gains and fell 5.0%. Farmers saw higher
prices for lettuce, wheat, soybeans and tomatoes, but
the livestock side was less kind to producers, with
lower prices for broilers, hogs, cattle and eggs. From
a year ago, the aggregate index is up 23%. Prices
paid for factors of production were unchanged from
September overall, but diesel fuel, LP gas, feed
supplements and complete feeds saw prices rise.
Nitrogen fertilizers, feeder cattle, feeder pigs and
herbicides saw price declines.
- MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
- Mortgage demand increased 3.8% in the week
ending October 26. Purchase applications decreased
0.7% and refinance applications increased 9.2%.
Putting the volatility of this index aside, the numbers
finally breakout according to expectations.
- Chain Store Sales
- Chain store sales rose 0.1% in the week ending
October 27, reversing virtually none of the prior week's
large decline, but sufficient to boost year-over-year
growth to 2.5% as comparisons eased. Warm
weather, higher gasoline prices, and California fires
were cited as drags, partially offset by Halloween-
- Oil and Gas Inventories
- Crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 3.9
million barrels for the week ending October 26,
according to the Energy Information Administration,
below expectations of a 0.4 million barrel build.
Distillate supplies rose by 0.8 million barrels, above
expectations of a 1.0 million barrel draw. Gasoline
inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels, above
expectations. Refinery activity fell sharply from 87.1%
to 86.2%, below expectations. Today's report is
Source: Economy.com, Financial Times 2007
|THIS WEEKS LEADS:
- Fuzziwig's Candy Factory and Sweets
- Fuzziwig's Candy Factory, Inc. trades as Fuzziwig's
Candy Factory and Sweets
From Heaven at 65 locations nationwide and
- The candy
stores occupy spaces of 1,000 sq.ft. in malls and
lifestyle, outlet and tourist centers, in addition to
- Growth opportunities are
sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
- Typical leases run 10 years.
- A vanilla shell is
- Major competitors include Sweet Factory.
- For more information,
- Fuzziwig's Candy Factory, Inc.,
- 656 Main Street,
- Durango, CO 81301;
- Fax 970-247-2735;
firstname.lastname@example.org; Web site:
- The Fresh Market
Wish we could!!
- operates 70 locations throughout the Midwestern
and southeastern regions.
- The The Fresh Market
markets, offering produce, seafood, wine and beer
and bakery departments, in addition to a floral and gift
department, occupy spaces of 22,000 sq.ft. in
freestanding locations and power and specialty
- Growth opportunities are sought
throughout Baltimore, MD; northern VA and
Washington, DC during the coming 18 months, with
presentation by Paraclete Realty, LLC.
competitors include Whole Foods.
- For more information, contact
- Paraclete Realty, LLC,
Headquarters Drive, Suite 3C,
- Millersville, MD
- Fax 410-987-9502;
- Web site:
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