• International Business Confidence
• Global business confidence appears to have stabilized, but at a low level that is consistent with a global economy that is just avoiding recession. U.S. business confidence is weaker and suggests that the U.S. economy contracted in September. European confidence is also very soft. Responses to the broader questions concerning current business conditions and the six-month outlook are notably negative, while responses to more specific questions regarding investment and payrolls are more positive. Sentiment in Asia and South America is also weathering the financial storm reasonably well.

• ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index
• After creeping higher over the past few weeks, consumer confidence took a breather in the latest period, according to the ABC News/Washington Post consumer comfort index. The headline index slipped a single point to -12 in the week ending September 30. The details of the report were less upbeat than the headline number would otherwise suggest. The buying climate and personal finances components fell four and two points, respectively. The lone bright spot this week was a modest improvement in the economic component.

• Factory Orders (M3)
• Factory orders fell by a larger than expected 3.3% in August. This followed a 3.4% increase in July. Durable goods orders were not revised from the first print, posting a 4.9% drop. Nondurable goods orders posted a 1.6% decline. Total shipments fell 1.6% over the month, with no revision to durable goods shipments.

• ISM Non-Mfg.Index
• The non-manufacturing business activity index moderately decreased in September, falling to 54.8%. Nevertheless, this number was above both consensus expectations and our forecast.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• Mortgage demand decreased 2.7% in the week ending September 28. Purchase applications decreased 1.8% and refinance applications decreased 3.8%. The decrease in 30-year rates may have helped to slow the decline in purchase applications, as buyers wait for the Fed interest rate cuts to fully pass through to fixed mortgage rates.

• Pending Home Sales
• The outlook for home sales remains weak. The pending home sales index fell to 85.5 in August, a decline of 6.5% from July, and a decline of 21.5% from a year ago. While this was not as sharp of a month-to- month decline as last month, the index's fall still suggests that home sales will weaken further over the next several months in the face of slumping demand.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales were unchanged in the week ending September 29 according to the ICSC, stabilizing after two weeks of good-sized declines. Year-over-year growth rose to 2.7% as comparisons continue to ease.

• Employment Index
• The Monster Employment Index was unchanged from August levels in September, clocking in at 186. The tone of the report was relatively neutral, highlighting a slightly weaker yet healthy labor market. As a direct consequence of recent turmoil in financial and housing markets, demand for labor in finance, real estate and rental leasing clocked in the most notable declines.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial jobless claims increased by 16,000 to 317,000, in line with expectations for a bounce back up after last week's surprising drop.

• Job Cuts
• According to Challenger's monthly tally, job cut announcements edged down in September to 71,739 from 79,459 in August but still remain elevated compared to the first half of the year. One in three job cuts were related to the housing downturn and this number underestimates the true impact since many affected establishments are small and do not issue formal press releases.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending September 21, according to the Energy Information Administration, above expectations of an 0.8 million barrel draw. Distillate supplies declined by 1.2 million barrels, below expectations of a 1 million barrel increase. Gasoline inventories fell modestly by 0.1 million barrels, relatively in line with expectations. Refinery activity rebounded from the prior week, increasing to 87.5% from 86.9%, above expectations. This report is bearish.

• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• Underground storage of natural gas increased by 57 billion cubic feet during the week ending September 28. This week's injection to storage came in below expectations. Inventories currently stand 7.5% above the five-year average for this time of the year. This report will have a bullish influence on prices.

Source: Economy.com, Financial Times 2007