Note:

1. Source: UDOT ADT 2006
2. Roads selected to be at or near a "City Center"

• International Business Confidence
• Global business confidence sagged again last week, despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive cut in interest rates. Sentiment fell to a new record low in the U.S. where it is now consistent with a contracting economy. Sales notably weakened last week and assessments of present conditions and expectations regarding the six-month outlook are very negative. It is encouraging that while investment and hiring intentions have also slipped, they have held up much better. Sentiment in Asia and South America is also weathering the financial storm reasonably well.

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell in September to 99.8 from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August (previously 105.0). This put the index at its lowest level since November 2005. The decline was led by the present situation component, although expectations also dropped. Assessments of labor market conditions weakened.

• GDP
• GDP growth in the second quarter saw a slight downward revision, to 3.8% (SAAR) from 4.0% in the preliminary report. This was slightly below the consensus estimate of 3.9%. The small downward revision was due to a slight upward revision to imports and a downward revision to nonresidential structures. These were partially offset by an upward revision to investment in equipment and software. GDP growth in the second quarter was strong, but near-term growth will be much weaker.

• Durable Goods (Advance)
• Durable goods orders fell 4.9% in August after rising 6.1% in July. Shipments were down over the month as well, falling 1.6%. The topline orders number was dragged down by a large drop in civilian aircraft orders in August, although core capital goods fell 0.7% over the month. Underlying detail in the report was fairly weak as most component industries saw a contraction in orders over the month. Shipments were mixed

• Agricultural Prices
• The preliminary All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers rose 1.4% in September, taking back August's decline. The aggregate price increase is not surprising given recent indications of bullish developments around the world and domestically, both on supplies and demand of various ag products. For the month, prices advanced for wheat, lettuce, eggs and cattle. Corn, hogs, strawberries and onions fetched lower prices. More recent developments suggest that corn prices will increase in the short term. Farmers also paid more for factors of production. Prices paid increased 0.6% this past month with nitrogen fertilizers, diesel fuel and feeder cattle gaining while complete feeds, feeder pigs and feed grains were less expensive.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• Mortgage demand decreased 2.8% in the week ending September 21. Purchase applications decreased 7.3% and refinance applications increased 3.3%. The increase in 30-year rates dampened purchase applications, as buyers wait for the Fed interest rate cuts to pass through to fixed rate mortgages.

• S&P/Case-Shiller Monthly Home Price Indexes
• The 10-metro house price index decreased 4.5% year-to-year in July. The 20-metro index decreased 3.9%. The average rate of monthly price declines is increasing, as tightened lending standards and a weakening economy suggest the housing slump will last well into 2008.

• Existing Home Sales
• Weakness permeates the housing market, with sales of existing homes down by 4.3% in August from the previous month. The 5.5 million annualized units sold are about on par with expectations. Further adding to the gloom, the months of homes available for sale increased to 10. The median house price is about flat from a year ago; however, that stability is misleading as the data are being skewed by shifts in the mix of homes sold.

• New Home Sales (C25)
• August new home sales data reflect the heightening in the mortgage market's problems that occurred late in the summer. New home sales fell a large 8% below July's reading to stand at 795,000 annualized units, below already weak expectations. This is the slowest pace of sales since December 1997. Further, July sales data were revised downward slightly. Months of supply moved up to 8.2, while the median sales price declined by 8% from one year ago.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales disappointed, falling 1.0% in the week ending September 22. This marked the first pair of consecutive declines of greater than 1% since 2004 and took the sales index to its lowest level of the year. Year-over-year growth dipped to 2.4%, its lowest level in three weeks.

• Jobless Claims
• Initial jobless claims decreased by 15,000 to 298,000, well below expectations for a slight gain.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 1.8 million barrels for the week ending September 21, according to the Energy Information Administration, above expectations of a 2.4 million barrel draw. Distillate supplies rose by 1.6 million barrels, beating expectations of a 1.3 million barrel increase. Gasoline inventories rose modestly by 0.6 million barrels, beating expectations. Refinery activity dropped sharply below expectations, falling from 89.6% to 86.9%, below expectations. This report is bearish.

• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• Underground storage of natural gas increased by 74 billion cubic feet during the week ending September 21. This figure was directly in line with expectations. Inventories currently stand 8% above the five-year average. This report will have a slightly bearish influence on prices.

Source: Economy.com, Financial Times 2007