Monday Report - ED 1 Survey Results August 20th, 2007

Economic Notes:

This Weeks Leads



Utah Economic Snapshot

Utah Labor Market Indicators - June 2007 (May 07)

  • Employment Growth: 4.5% (4.5%)
  • Employment Increase: 55,100 (54,000)
  • Unemployment Rate: 2.6 %(2.5%)

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 7/17/07

U.S. Labor Market Indicators - June 2007 (May 07)

  • Employment Growth: 1.4% (1.4%)
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.5%(4.5%)

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 6/12/07

Where the Jobs Are - June 2007

  • State Total - 55,046 +4.5%
  • Salt Lake County (47%) - 25,772 +4.4%
  • Utah County (18%) - 10,182 +5.8%
  • Davis County (4.6%) - 3,831 +3.7%
  • Weber County (6.1%) - 3,367 +3.6%
  • Washington County (4.3%) - 2,373 +4.5%

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 7/17/07

What kinds of Jobs - June 2007

  • State Total - 55,046 +4.5%
  • Specialty Trade Contractors - 10,000 +15.0%
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services - 5,600 +9.0%
  • Accommodation and Food Services - 4,000 +4.3%
  • Health Services and Social Assistance - 3,900 +3.7%
  • Food Services and Drinking Places - 3,300 +4.4%
  • Finance and Insurance - 2,800 +5.2%
  • Construction of Buildings - 2,500 +11.5%

Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services, 7/17/07

Aug 08 2007 ED Survey Results

  1. What are or should be your Economic Development goals?
    • Creating more jobs 14%
    • Creating "Good Jobs" 52%
    • Creating "Tax Base" 21%
    • Creating "Retail Sales" 7%
    • Other? 7%
    • No Responses 0%
    • Total 100%
  2. What is your strategy for increasing the total number of jobs?
    • Strengthening your local export base? 18%
    • Substituting local produced products for imports? 8%
    • Recruiting employers? 38%
    • Recruiting retailers? 23%
    • Other? 13%
    • Total 100%
  3. What is your strategy for encouraging "High- Quality Jobs?
    • Limit incentives to employers who pay higher than regional average wages? 7%
    • Recruiting high value added employers? 38%
    • Encourage "on-the-job- training? 14%
    • Supporting higher education? 17%
    • Help with technology transfer/acquisition? 7%
    • Other? 17%
    • No Responses 0%
    • Total 100%
  4. What is your strategy for increasing retail sales?
    • Recruiting retailers? 21%
    • Recruiting grocery stores? 0%
    • Recruiting "big box" retailers? 7%
    • Recruiting auto and RV dealers? 0%
    • Encouraging new household developments? 17%
    • Other 55%
    • No Responses 0%
    • Total 100%
  5. Which of the following categories best describes the sector you work in?
    • Local Government Services 38%
    • State Government Services 3%
    • Consulting Services 0%
    • Education 0%
    • Real Estate 24%
    • Financial Services 3%
    • Government Services 0%
    • Non-Profit 17%
    • Marketing/Sales/Public Relations 3%
    • Other 10%
    • No Responses 0%
    • Total 100%

The evolving role of the CMO

Who is the State, County or City CMO? The Economic Development Director?

  • As the forces of proliferation gather strength, companies will need to redefine the way the marketing function performs its critical tasks and broaden the role of the chief marketing officer.
  • Today, many CMO's have narrowly defined roles that emphasize advertising, brand management, and market research.
  • In the years ahead, companies will need their CMO's to lead far-reaching change efforts, shape their public profiles, help manage complexity, and build new capabilities.
  • CEO's have a role too: helping CMO's to set priorities and drive organizational change while fostering closer connections between them and other senior executives.

Source: McKinsey & Company, 2007

Grants for Community Colleges!

  • Community-Based Job Training Grants
  • POSTED: 8/8/2007
  • ELIGIBILITY: Community or technical colleges, community college districts, and One-Stop Career Centers in partnership with the local WIB
  • $ AVAILABLE: $125,000,000
  • MAX GRANT SIZE: $2,000,000
  • DEADLINE: 10/10/07
  • CONTACT INFORMATION: http://www.tgci.com/fedrgtxt/E7-15362.txt
  • DESCRIPTION: Funds to support or engage in a combination of capacity building and training activities for the purpose of building the capacity of community colleges to train individuals for careers in high- growth/high-demand industries in the local and/or regional economies.

Whole Foods-Wild Oats merger OK'd

  • Federal judge OKs Whole Foods-Wild Oats merger.
  • A federal judge rejected the Federal Trade Commission's bid to stop Whole Foods' acquisition of Wild Oats, which may close as early as Monday afternoon.
  • The FTC has the option of appealing the decision and seeking an emergency delay.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Take the ED Survey

  • Economic Development Survey #1 Results
  • Utah Jobs
  • CMO's?
  • Community College Grants
  • Economic notes
  • This weeks leads

Bob Springmeyer

Bonneville Research

  • Economic Notes:
    • International Business Confidence
    • Businesses are very nervous about the turmoil in global financial markets. Sentiment fell sharply last week on top of a large decline the week before. Assessments of present conditions fell to their lowest level since in the middle of the Iraq invasion in early 2003. It is notable that sentiment has weakened most outside of the U.S., with very sharp declines in Europe and South America. Respondents appear particularly worried about sales. It is encouraging that expectations regarding the six-month outlook have held up much better, suggesting that respondents believe that the current problems will not prove long- lasting.
    • International Trade (FT900)
    • The nominal U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by 1.7% in June. The U.S. trade deficit came in at $58.1 billion, $1.0 billion less than May's revised $59.2 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In June, both exports and imports increased, while exports increased more than imports. The goods deficit with China, however, widened 5.7% to $21.2 billion. Crude oil prices increased in June, however, the nation's total import bill for energy-related petroleum products decreased to $26.7 billion, since the quantity imported declined.
    • Risk of Recession
    • The Moody's Economy.com probability of recession retreated in July to 12%, down from June's 17%. The probability of recession is within in the narrow range that has prevailed since early-2006. Also, the decline in the probability of recession in July reflects an improvement in consumer confidence and tight labor markets.
    • ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index
    • The ABC News/Washington Post consumer comfort index is heading south. The headline index dipped two points to -11 in the week ending August 12. This puts confidence at its lowest level in five weeks. The details were mixed, with a six-point drop in the economic component leading the overall charge lower.
    • Treasury Budget
    • The unified deficit for July was $36.3 billion, slightly above the CBO's preliminary estimate of a $33 billion deficit. The federal government has run a deficit of $157 billion through the first ten months of fiscal year 2007; this is 34% smaller than the deficit at the same point in fiscal year 2006. The federal government continues to see strong revenue growth and spending restraint, which is reducing the deficit.
    • Treasury International Capital Flows
    • Net long-term TIC flows rose to $120.9 billion in June, compared to $126 billion in May. Total monthly net TIC flows came to $58.8 billion in June, down from $105.9 billion in May.
    • Import & Export Prices
    • The U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.5% in July. The increase followed a 0.9% rise in June and was led by an increase in petroleum prices. Export prices rose 0.2% in July, after increasing by 0.3% in the previous month.
    • Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
    • The Federal Reserve's July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed that, on net, demand for loans has dropped off across most categories since the last survey in April. The survey also showed that banks continue to tighten lending standards on real estate loans-both commercial and residential.
    • Industrial Production
    • Industrial production rose by 0.3% in July, half the rate of growth in June. Manufacturing output rose a better-than-expected 0.6%, but utility production disappointed with an outsized 2.1% drop. Mining output rose 0.7%, the strongest growth year to date. Capacity utilization rose to 81.9% in July and the result for June was revised higher by a tenth of a percentage point. Manufacturing utilization rose to 80.7% and now sits within striking distance of its cyclical high of 81% set in August 2006.
    • Business Inventories (MTIS)
    • Total business inventories increased by 0.4%, in line with expectations. Inventories at retailers were up 0.5% for the month. Total business sales declined by 0.3%. The total I/S ratio rose to 1.27.
    • Business Employment Dynamics
    • After slumping during the third quarter of 2006, the year ended on a more positive note for job creation. According to Business Employment Dynamics, the rate of job creation improved to 6.8% in the fourth quarter, while the rate of job losses fell to 6.4%-the lowest rate on record. This suggests that employers are holding on to workers in the tight labor market.
    • Jobless Claims
    • Slightly away from expectations, but consistent with the fact that recent readings were too low, initial jobless claims increased by 6,000 to 322,000.
    • PPI
    • Producer prices rose faster than expected in July across all stages of processing. Producer prices for finished goods rose by 0.6%, due largely to inflation among energy products. Excluding food and energy, core prices for finished goods rose by only 0.1%, in line with prior expectations. Core price increases were tame at earlier levels of processing as well.
    • Consumer Price Index
    • The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was up 0.1% in July, following a 0.2% increase in June. A drop in energy prices led to weaker topline inflation. The core index, excluding food and energy prices, increased 0.2% in July, the same pace as in June. Over the past year core CPI inflation has run at a 2.2% pace, while topline inflation has increased 2.4%. The numbers were in line with the consensus. Today's report is further indication that inflation is slowing, the result of recent below-potential economic growth.
    • Bankruptcy Filings
    • Personal bankruptcy filings continue to increase from their post-reform lows at a slow pace. Filings in the second quarter were 35% above last year, a much smaller gain than in the first quarter, and remained less than half the second quarter of 2005. Business bankruptcies are following a similar pattern, up 38% from the second quarter of last year, but down 23% over the past two years.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
    • Mortgage demand increased 3.4% in the week ending August 10. Purchase applications increased 3.9% and refinance applications increased 2.6%. In the last couple of weeks applications are up, reflecting a shift in lenders' preferences to the fixed rate mortgages demanded by potential mortgagors.
    • NAR Metro Prices
    • Regional pricing trends continue to look weak in the second quarter of 2007, with about 34% of the metro areas reported by the NAR posting a year-over- year decline in the median price. The Midwest region is taking the biggest hit overall, but house prices are descending the fastest in Florida metro areas. Sales are down in 42 of the 49 reported states.
    • NAHB Housing Market Index
    • Homebuilder optimism decreased another two points to 22 in August, a drop of 14 points total since March. Overall, the index is down in every component. In fact, the traffic of potential buyers index value of 16 is an exceedingly low number, signaling that the bottom of the housing market appears nowhere in sight.
    • New Residential Construction (C20)
    • Housing starts decreased 6.1% to 1.381 million units in July. Housing permits decreased 2.8% during the month. The figures are below estimates. Expect the market to remain soft throughout the year.
    • Retail Sales (MARTS)
    • Total retail sales rose 0.3% in July after tumbling in June, led by strong growth at department and apparel stores and restaurants. Non-auto sales rose 0.4% as auto sales dipped. Growth was positive nearly across the board outside of auto dealers and gasoline stations. Growth in June was revised up to - 0.7% from -0.9%. Year-over-year growth dropped to 3.2% in total and 4.4% excluding autos.
    • Chain Store Sales
    • Chain store sales fell 0.9% in the week ending August 11, the second straight decline and the largest in 12 weeks. Year-over-year growth fell to 2.3%, the lowest in seven weeks. Severe weather in several parts of the country was blamed for the weakness.
    • Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales)
    • E-commerce sales rebounded from a soft first quarter, growing by 6.4% q/q in the second quarter of the year. This report suggests that consumers remain resilient in their online spending habits despite a growing number of adverse macroeconomic factors, the most notable being the housing correction and a slower pace of hiring nationwide.
    • Oil and Gas Inventories
    • Crude oil inventories dropped 5.2 million barrels for the week ending August 10, according to the Energy Information Administration. Expectations were for a 2.5 million drop in crude oil inventories. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.1 million barrels, also above expectations. Refineries capacity utilization rate averaged 91.8% in this period, in line with expectations. Distillate stocks rose by a mere 0.2 million barrels, well short of expectations.

    Source: Economy.com

  • This Weeks Leads
    • Leslie's Pool Supplies
    • Leslie's Poolmart, Inc. trades as Leslie's Pool Supplies.
    • The 500-unit chain operates nationwide in 35 states.
    • The pool supply stores occupy spaces of 3,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and strip centers.
    • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
    • Typical leases run five years.
    • The company prefers sites anchored by grocery stores.
    • Mail site submittals to:
      • Jim Iacobazzi,
      • Leslie's Poolmart, Inc.,
      • 3925 East Broadway Road, Suite 100,
      • Phoenix, AZ 85040;
      • Web site: www.lesliespool.com.
    • 5 & Diner
    • 5 & Diner Franchise Corp. trades as 5 & Diner at 18 locations throughout AZ, FL, IA, ID, MA, OH, OK, TN, VA and WI.
    • The diners occupy spaces of 3,000 sq.ft. in endcaps of strip centers, inline spaces in entertainment centers and downtown/urban areas in addition to freestanding locations.
    • Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months.
    • The company is franchising.
    • Mail site submittals to:
      • Ken Higginbotham,
      • 5 & Diner Franchise Corp.,
      • 1140 East Greenway Street, Suite 1,
      • Mesa, AZ 85203;
      • Web site: www.5anddiner.com.
    • Lucky Brand Jeans, Juicy, Sigrid Olsen, Dana Buchman, Mexx, Laundry, Elisabeth and Ellen Tracy
    • Liz Claiborne, Inc. trades as Lucky Brand Jeans, Juicy, Sigrid Olsen, Dana Buchman, Mexx, Laundry, Elisabeth and Ellen Tracy at 220 locations throughout AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, MA, NJ, NV, NY, PA, SC, TX, UT, VA and Washington, DC.
    • The apparel stores occupy spaces of 2,500 sq.ft. to 4,000 sq.ft. in lifestyle centers and malls.
    • Growth opportunities are sought throughout the east and west coasts during the coming 18 months.
    • Typical leases run 10 years.
    • A vanilla shell and specific improvements are required.
    • Preferred cotenants include Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom.
    • Preferred demographics include a population of 500,000 within 10 miles earning $75,000 as the average household income.
    • Mail site submittals to:
      • Brian Dwan,
      • Liz Claiborne, Inc.,
      • 3340 Leonis Boulevard,
      • Vernon, CA 90058.
    • Franktitude
    • Franktitude operates five locations throughout FL.
    • The hot dog restaurants occupy spaces of 1,000 sq.ft. to 2,000 sq.ft. in power, specialty and strip centers; airports, colleges, hotels and other entertainment locations as well as urban/downtown and freestanding locations.
    • Plans call for 100 openings nationwide during the coming 18 months, with representation by APE Realty.
    • A vanilla shell and a tenant improvement allowance are required.
    • Preferred demographics include a population of 30,000 within a three-mile radius earning an average household income of $45,000.
    • The company is franchising.
    • Mail site submittals to:
      • Mark Camara,
      • APE Realty,
      • 4491 West Whitewater Avenue,
      • Weston, FL 33332;
      • Web site: www.franktitude.com.

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