July 9th Monday Report - Utah's High Tech Jobs


Monday Report
Utah's High Tech Jobs	July 9th, 2007

Economic Notes:

This Weeks Leads:

SCORECARD

Utah's High Tech Jobs

There is no NAICS code specific to high- technology. Utah's Governor's Council of Economic Advisors created a high-technology definition several years ago, and that is the definition employed here. Applying that yardstick, Utah's technology community-as measured by employment-is growing, but hasn't made a dynamic comeback yet from the employment losses experienced earlier this decade.

High-technology employment in Utah peaked in December 2000 at 67,700. Then followed what some call the "dot com" bust, and employment fell by 17 percent to 56,300 by March 2003, the business cycle's low point.* Thereafter, high technology employment started its slow rebound, and as of the end of 2006 had risen to 65,000-just 4 percent below its previous December 2000 peak. However, even though the industry is growing, it still hasn't regained its overall position in the Utah economy. Whereas in December 2000 high-technology employment accounted for 6.1 percent of all Utah employment, it currently stands at 5.2 percent, the same share it had declined to by March 2003.

The largest high-technology industries in Utah are computer systems design, aerospace, medical equipment manufacturing, and software development. The overall Utah economy grew by 4.9 percent in December 2006. If we remove the high- technology portion of employment and recalculate state employment growth, it remains at 4.9 percent. This suggests that although high-technology employment is growing, it is largely treading water, keeping pace with the overall economic flow. It is currently not a leader within the Utah economy. That is currently being spearheaded by other industries.

Males account for 70 percent of the high- technology labor force. Females do outnumber males in the medical equipment manufacturing sector, but that is the only area. Ignoring gender and looking instead at age distribution, it is largely a normal distribution with a slight bend towards the young. Looking at ten-year age groups, those 25 to 34 make up 29 percent of the labor force, the largest percentage within any ten-year age distribution.

Utah's High Tech Jobs

High Tech represent 5.2% of the State-Wide Employment High Technology Total
A total of 64,962 are employed in High Technology
The "Top Ten" represent 92% of the State-Wide High Tech Employment
The "Top Five" represent 2/3rds of High Tech Employment

Rank	Sector	# Employed	% of Total High Tech	Cumulative Total
1	Computer Systems Design	13,982	21.5%	21.5%
2	Aerospace	8,054	12.4%	33.9%
3	Engineering Services	7,693	11.8%	45.8%
4	Medical Equipment Mfg.	7,594	11.7%	57.5%
5	Software	5,368	8.3%	65.7%
6	Physical, Engineering, Biological Research	4,106	6.3%	72.0%
7	Semiconductor Components Mfg.	3,601	5.5%	77.6%
8	Electrical Instrument Mfg.	3,379	5.5%	82.8%
9	Communications Equip. Mfg.	3,084	4.7%	87.5%
10	Internet Service Providers	2,826	4.4%	91.9%
11	Motion Picture Production	1,691	2.6%	94.5%
12	Testing Laboratories	1,251	1.9%	96.4%
13	Wireless Telecomm	805	1.2%	97.6%
14	Computer Equip. Mfg.	605	0.9%	98.6%
15	Carbon Graphite Mfg..	508	0.8%	99.4%
16	Optical Lens Mfg.	152	0.2%	99.6%
17	Satellite Telecomm	114	0.2%	99.8%
18	Other Telecomm	82	0.1%	99.9%
19	Postproduction	42	0.1%	100.0%
20	In-Vitro Diagnostic Mfg.	25	0.0%	100.0%

Source: Source: Governor's Council of Economic Advisors; Utah Department of Workforce Services, 2007

Federally financed R&D expenditures at universities and colleges, ranked by FY 2005 expenditures: FY 2005 (Dollars in thousands)

Rank	Institution	2005 ($000)	% of Total
	All Institutions	29,167,128	100%
1	Johns Hopkins U.	1,277,292	4.38%
2	U. WA	606,317	2.08%
3	Stanford U.	574,675	1.97%
4	U. of MI all campuses	554,516	1.90%
5	U. of WI Madison	477,582	1.64%
6	U. CA. Los Angeles	469,889	1.61%
7	U. PA	465,284	1.60%
8	U. CA. San Diego	463,946	1.59%
9	MA Institute of Technology	457,235	1.57%
10	Columbia U. in the City of NY	453,188	1.55%
25	U. AZ	292,811	1.00%
55	U. UT	168,652	0.58%
101	UT State U.	92,660	0.32%
201	Brigham Young U. all campuses	16,878	0.06%

Source: Source: Source: National Science Foundation, 2007

Dept of Health and Human Services Financed R & D:

# 47, U. UT - $117,752
# 148, UT State U - $11,518
# 198, Brigham Young U. all campuses - $3,461

Dept of Defense Financed R & D:

# 22, UT State U - $23,823
# 130, Brigham Young U. all campuses - $4,872
# 140, U. UT - $4,310

Dept of Energy Financed R & D:

# 24, U. UT - $10,526
# 125, UT State U - $1,417
# 112, Brigham Young U. all campuses - $1,958

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Financed R & D:

# 8, UT State U - $30,155
# 147, U. UT - $1,152
# 189, Brigham Young U. all campuses - $543

National Science Foundation Financed R & D:

# 55, U. UT - $19,166
# 120, UT State U - $5,217
# 138, Brigham Young U. all campuses - $4,188

US Dept of Agriculture Financed R & D:

# 20, UT State U - $14,265
# 107, Brigham Young U. all campuses - $590
# 188, U. UT - $101

Source: National Science Foundation, 2007 http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf07318/content.cfm? pub_id=3767&id=2

''Suppies''

Suburbs Are Graying Faster Than Big Cities

America's suburbs, historically a haven for young families with children, are aging more rapidly than the nation's central cities as the first suburban generation grows older.

At the same time, there are early signs of a possible trend of wealthier and more educated older suburbanites moving to the cities.

Those findings in a report released by the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan research group, suggest that in most places, the fastest growth in elderly populations will result from the aging of baby boomers already living there, rather than from an infusion of retirees.

The over-65 population in Georgia is projected to rise more than 40 percent in the decade beginning in 2010 as residents grow older, but only 3 percent as a result of migration.

Florida still attracts the most elderly migrants. But the fastest overall growth of elderly people over the next two decades is projected for Georgia and Arizona, the slowest in Pennsylvania and New York.

The Brookings study forecast widening age disparities between cities and increasingly older suburbs by 2040 in, among other places, Chicago, Los Angeles and Philadelphia. ''Suburbs, which previously were considered youthful and family-friendly parts of America, will, as more seniors age in place, become a fast-graying part of our national landscape,'' said William H. Frey, a Brookings demographer.

Around New York City, the proportion of people 65 and older in the suburbs surpassed the city's share in the 1980s.

The city itself remains a mecca for younger job-seekers, and the influx of foreigners and higher fertility rates among immigrants have also been a brake on the rising median age (which ranges from under 32 in the Bronx to nearly 41 in Nassau County on Long Island).

''New York was a leader in postwar suburbanization and is now leading the trend toward suburban aging,'' Dr. Frey said. An earlier exodus of baby boomers, coupled with a continuing migration of older people, mean that the elderly population in New York State is expected to grow at a slower rate than in any other state from 2000 to 2040.

Dr. Frey said the extraordinary growth in the number of Americans from 55 to 64 will fuel a ''senior tsunami'' beginning in less than four years when the first baby boomers turn 65.

The greatest growth in the 55-to-64-year-old group has been in the West and in Sun Belt metropolitan areas (including Atlanta; Austin, Tex.; Las Vegas; Phoenix; and Raleigh, N.C.) -- areas that, like the suburbs, were previously known for younger populations -- and in New Hampshire and Vermont, which have lured mobile workers attracted by the scenic beauty and small-town amenities.

From 2000 to 2010, the population in that age group is projected to rise across the board, ranging from an increase of 80 percent in Arizona to a still robust 33 percent increase in New York.

Since 2000, the fastest growth in that population was registered in states that also recorded the most job growth. The slowest was in Rust Belt areas that had already hemorrhaged jobs.

The new demographics of aging present unique opportunities and challenges, both for the elderly and for their neighbors. While New York, Washington, Boston, San Francisco and Chicago, among others, may appeal to aging suburbanites, smaller cities and metropolitan areas are also marketing themselves as magnets for urban professionals ages 65 to 74, or ''suppies,'' many of whom are still working and who tend to be healthier and wealthier than other older people.

Dr. Frey said the increasing share of the elderly in the suburbs will place new demands on housing, health care, transportation and social services.

Source: New York Times, 2007

What is a ''Suppie''?

An aging suburbanite, age 65 to 74

Where Are the ''Suppies''?

Ranked by 2007 Population

Rank	City	# 65-74 2007	# 65-74 2012	Ave HH Income 65-74 2007
1	Salt Lake City	7,800	8,600	$71, 472
2	St George	5,764	6,690	$ 51,728
3	West Valley	4,653	5,312	$6 0,201
4	Ogden	3,624	3,827	$55,614
5	Sandy	3,250	4,000	$84,302
6	Bountiful	3,250	3,120	$78,481
7	Provo	3,104	3,590	$65,736
8	Orem	3,070	3,420	$71,553
9	Taylorsville	2,550	2,840	$60,595
10	Layton	2,280	2,500	$68,461
11	Murray	1,849	3,797	$68,341
12	West Jordan	1,804	2,182	$ 81,676
13	Cottonwood Heights	1,692	1,834	$82,285
14	Logan	1,371	1,451	$80,241
15	South Jordan	1,175	1,544	$ 109,484
16	Brigham City	1,142	1,110	$54, 665
17	Holladay	1,100	1,130	$98,635
18	Cedar City	881	993	$54,371
19	Farmington	560	740	$73,448
20	Vernal	516	556	$40,782
nr	Park City	398	546	$97,318

Source: U.S. Census, ESRI BIS, Bonneville Research 2007

Where the ''Suppies'' Have Money!

Top 5 Income

South Jordan - $109,484
Holladay - $98,635
Park City - $97,318
Sandy - $84,302
Cottonwood Heights - $82,285

Where the ''Suppies'' Will Be!

Top 5 Growth Rate

Murray - 105.4%
Park City - 37.2%
Farmington - 32.1%
South Jordan - 31.4%
Sandy - 23.1%

Where the ''Suppies'' Are Leaving!

Bottom 2 Growth Rate

Bountiful - (-4.0%)
Brigham City - (-2.8%)

Source: U.S. Census, ESRI BIS, Bonneville Research 2007

	Greetings! Utah's High Tech Jobs Utah's Universities R & D Rankings Where are the "Suppies"? Economic notes This weeks leads Bob Springmeyer Bonneville Research

Economic Notes:
	Economic Notes: Global Business Confidence Global business confidence remained unchanged and uninspiring at the end of June. Sentiment is measurably stronger than it was at its low point at the start of the year, but it remains soft and has not materially changed in over three months. Confidence remains consistent with an economy that is expanding at just below its potential, particularly in the U.S. South American businesses are the most upbeat, as are financial services firms. As has been the case for sometime, vehicle manufacturers and European businesses remain the least optimistic. ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index After flirting with its low for the year last week, consumer confidence mounted a comeback in the latest period. The ABC News/Washington Post consumer comfort index gained five points to -7 in the week ending July 1. The latest improvement puts the index at a seven week high. The details were particularly upbeat with all three underlying components rising over the week. Global Semiconductor Sales Global semiconductor sales rose by 1.2% in May to $20.3 billion on a three-month moving average basis. As such, sales remain 2.4% higher than in May 2006. Sales grew in all regions, aside from Europe, during the month. Factory Orders (M3) New orders for manufactured goods fell a smaller than expected 0.5% in May. New orders for durable goods fell 2.4%, an upward revision from the previously published 2.8% decline. Nondurable goods orders rose 1.6%-a much larger than expected increase; petroleum and coal products shipments led the way. ISM Non-Mfg.Index Business activity in the non-manufacturing sectors of the economy continues to defy expectations and accelerate, rising one point to 60.7% in June, the fastest pace of growth since April 2006. Employment Index The Monster Employment Index decreased three points in June, with a reading of 186 compared to 189 in May. The details of the report were also softer, as most industries and occupations did not increase during the month. Jobless Claims U.S. initial jobless claims increased by 2,000 to 318,000, in line with expectations for a mild gain. Consumer Spending Spending patterns of consumers stayed "choppy" during June and increased only 0.1% in the week ended June 30 -- up 2.5% from the same week a year earlier, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities. ICSC chief economist Michael Niemira said sales for the fiscal month of June were now expected to increase 1.5% to 2% -- slightly slower than the earlier prediction of 2%. Chain Store Sales Chain store sales rose a scant 0.1% in the week ending June 30 as lower gasoline prices provided some support to demand. Year-over-year growth improved to 2.5%, the best growth in five weeks, as comparisons eased. Vehicle Sales U.S. vehicle sales fell to their lowest pace of the year; sales on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis fell to 15.6 million, bringing the average for the year down to 16.3 million units (SAAR). The market share of U.S. brand vehicles fell to its lowest ever - only 50.7%. U.S. manufacturers blamed this on a shift away from low margin rental vehicles. Case-Shiller Home Price Indices For the first quarter of this year, the Case-Shiller repeat-purchase house price index is down on a year- ago basis by 1.4%, confirming the weakening in the housing market evident in the Realtors' median price as well as the OFHEO's repeat-purchase index. The CSW price index paints a slightly weaker picture than either of the other two measures of prices. Regionally, the Mountain states are performing the worst, with the Pacific and New England states also quite weak. MBA Mortgage Applications Survey Mortgage demand increased 0.1% in the week ending June 29. Purchase applications increased 2.0% and refinance applications decreased 2.6%. The mortgage applications survey is not signaling a bottom to the housing market. Oil and Gas Inventories Crude oil inventories soared by 3.1 million barrels for the week ending June 29, according to the Energy Information Administration, dwarfing expectations of a 0.3 million barrel build. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels, defying expectations of a 0.3 million barrel build. Refinery activity improved yet again increasing 0.6% to 90.0%. Distillate inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.1 million barrel uptick. This report will exert downward pressure on crude oil prices. Source: Economy.com

This Weeks Leads:
	Olympia Sports Olympia Sports, a 163-unit chain operates locations throughout CT, MA, ME, NH, NY, PA, RI and VT. The sporting goods centers occupy spaces of 3,500 sq.ft. to 5,000 sq.ft. in malls, power, specialty and strip centers. Growth opportunities are sought throughout the existing markets during the coming 18 months. Typical leases run five years. A vanilla shell and specific improvements are required. Preferred cotenants include grocery stores, Target, T.J. Maxx, Staples and WalMart. Preferred demographics include a population of 45,000 within three miles earning $40,000 as the average household income. Major competitors are cited as Dick's Sporting Goods and Sports Authority. Send site submittals to: Carla Manganello, Olympia Sports, 5 Bradley Drive, Westbrook, ME 04092; Web site: www.olympiasports.net Daily Grill and The Grill on the Alley* Grill Concepts, Inc. trades as Daily Grill and The Grill on the Alley at 28 locations throughout CA, IL, MA, MD, OR, TX, VA, WA and Washington, DC. The restaurants occupy spaces of 5,000 sq.ft. to 8,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations, malls, hotels, offices, mixed-use and specialty centers. Growth opportunities are sought throughout major metro markets in AZ, CA, CT, FL, MA, ME, NH, NV, RI, TX, VT and WA during the coming 18 months. Typical leases run 15 years with options. Specific improvements are required. For more information, contact Robert Chais, Grill Concepts, Inc., PO Box 356, El Segundo, CA 90245; Web site: www.dailygrill.com. PacSun Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc. trades as PacSun at 875 locations nationwide and throughout PR. The shops, selling surfing and skating apparel, occupy spaces of 4,000 sq.ft. in outlet and lifestyle centers as well as malls. Plans call for 15 openings nationwide during the coming 18 months. Preferred cotenants include Abercrombie, Hollister, American Eagle, Aeropostale and Journey's. Competition includes retailers targeting teenagers. Typical leases run 10 years. Preferred demographics include a population of 300,000 within a 10-mile radius earning an average household income of $60,000. For more information, contact Linda Eddy, Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc., 3450 East Miraloma Avenue, Anaheim, CA 92806; Web site: www.pacificsunwear.com. Moe's Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill operates 350 locations nationwide. The restaurants, offering burritos, fajitas, nachos, salads and tacos, occupy spaces of 1,700 sq.ft. to 3,000 sq.ft. in endcaps, entertainment, lifestyle, power and strip centers and urban/downtown areas. Growth opportunities are sought throughout Monmouth and Ocean counties in NJ and New York and Westchester, NY during the coming 18 months, with representation by Schuckman Realty, Inc. For more information, contact Ari Malul, Schuckman Realty, Inc., 7600 Jericho Turnpike, Woodbury, NY 11797; Web site: www.schuckmanrealty.com. Buffalo Exchange and Buffalo Kids Buffalo Exchange, Ltd. trades as Buffalo Exchange and Buffalo Kids at 33 stores throughout AZ, CA, CO, IL, LA, NM, NV, NY, OR, PA, TX and WA. The stores, selling new clothing and buying, selling and trading used clothing, occupy spaces of 3,000 sq.ft. in strip centers and freestanding locations. Growth opportunities are sought throughout IL, NE and TX during the coming 18 months. The company is franchising. For more information, contact the Director of Real Estate, Buffalo Exchange, Ltd., 203 Helen Street, Tucson, AZ 85705; Web site: www.buffaloexchange.com. H & M Hennes & Mauritz LLP trades as H & M at 70 locations throughout CA, CT, DE, IL, IN, MA, MD, MI, NH, MN, NJ, NY, OH, PA, RI, VA, WI and Washington, DC. The shops, selling fashion items at discount prices, occupy spaces of 7,000 sq.ft. to 30,000 sq.ft. in malls and downtown/urban locations. Growth opportunities are sought throughout the eastern midstates and southern regions of the U.S. during the coming 18 months. For more information, contact Michael Oliverio, Hennes & Mauritz LLP, 47 West 34th Street, Third Floor, New York, NY 10001; Web site: www.hm.com. Larry's Giant Subs Larry's Giant Subs operates 105 locations throughout AL, FL, GA, SC, TN, TX and WV. The restaurants, with sit down, take-out and delivery services and offering subs, sandwiches and salads, occupy spaces of 1,400 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and strip centers. Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months. Typical leases run five years with options. For more information, contact Larry or Mitch Raikes, Larry's Giant Subs, 4479 Deerwood Lake Parkway, Suite 1, Jacksonville, FL 32216; Web site: www.larryssubs.com. Cajun Caf�, China Max and Little Tokyo Magic Wok Management trades as Cajun Caf�, China Max and Little Tokyo at 200 locations throughout AL, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MI, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NJ, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI, Washington, DC and Puerto Rico. The Chinese and Japanese fast food restaurants occupy spaces of 600 sq.ft. to 800 sq.ft. in malls, entertainment centers, colleges and universities, in addition to downtown areas. Growth opportunities are sought nationwide during the coming 18 months. Typical leases run 10 years. For more information, contact David Wu, Magic Wok Management, 3421 North Lakeview Drive, Suite 168, Tampa, FL 33618; Web site: www.magicwokmanagement.com.

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