• Sales and Use Taxes (Gen Gov’t) (+1.8%) (+3.1%)
• Individual Income Taxes (Education) (+7.9%) (+5.7%)
• Corporate Franchise Taxes (Gen Gov’t) (+23.6%) (+25.4%)
• Motor Fuel Taxes (Transportation) (-4.1%) (-2.2%)
• Severance Taxes (Gen Gov’t) (-22.5%) (+11.2%)

Source: Utah State Tax Commission, 3/15/07

• International Trade (FT900)
• The nominal U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by 3.8% in January. The U.S. trade deficit came in at $59.1 billion, $2.3 billion less than December's revised $61.5 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In January, exports increased and imports decreased. The goods deficit with China, however, widened 12.0% to $21.3 billion. Crude oil prices decreased in January, which in return decreased the nation's total import bill for energy- related petroleum products to $22.0 billion.

• Import and Export Prices
• The U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.2% in February. The increase followed a revised 0.9% decline in January and was led by a 2% increase in petroleum prices. Export prices rose 0.7% in February, after increasing by 0.4% in the previous month.

• Current Account
• The U.S. current account deficit narrowed by 14.6% to $195.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2006, from $229.4 billion in the previous quarter. The consensus expected the deficit to narrow to $203.5 billion. The balance on goods and services narrowed by 11.3% to $178.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2006, from $201.4 billion in the previous quarter.

• Treasury International Capital Flows
• Capital flows improved in January. Net long-term portfolio flows rose to $97.4 billion in January, up from $15.6 billion in December. Total portfolio flows were $74.6 billion, which is a vast improvement over the sell-off of $11.0 billion in December.

• Wholesale Trade (MWTR)
• Wholesale trade inventories rebounded in January with a gain of 0.7%. This came on the back of poor sales numbers, as the month's sales dropped by 0.9%. These led to a jump in the I/S ratio to 1.19 from 1.17.

• Employment Situation
• The U.S. labor market created 97,000 jobs on net in February, slightly higher than Moody's Economy.com had expected. Although this is the weakest one month gain in two years, upward revisions are typical. Sharp declines in goods- producing employment were counterbalanced by stronger service-producing job growth. The unemployment rate declined to 4.5%, in part due to a contraction in the labor force. Job gains for January were revised higher, to 146,000 from 111,000.

• Treasury Budget
• The unified deficit for February was $120.0 billion, slightly smaller than the CBO’s preliminary estimate of a $123 billion deficit. The federal government has run a deficit of $162.2 billion through the first five months of fiscal year 2007; this is 25% smaller than the deficit at the same point in fiscal year 2006.

• PPI
• Producer prices for finished goods jumped 1.3% in February, following a 0.6% decline in January. This rate of increase far surpassed the consensus forecast. Energy prices shot up 3.5% and consumer foods rose 1.9%. Excluding energy and food, core producer prices increased 0.4% compared to 0.2% a month earlier, indicating that some inflationary pressures remain. At the intermediate stage, core prices gained 0.2% and crude goods rose 2.7% for the month.

• Risk of Recession
• The Moody’s Economy.com probability of recession rose in February to 22%, from January’s upwardly revised 19%. The sharp correction in equity markets in late February and further inversion of the yield curve helped boost recession risks. Unemployment insurance claims also picked up some in February. The improvement in consumer confidence last month helped keep a lid on recession risks. The chance of the economy being in recession in six months is elevated and rising.

• MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
• Mortgage demand increased 2.8% in the week ending March 9. Purchase applications increased 2.2% and refinance applications increased 3.5%. The unadjusted numbers are also positive, but more in line with a forecast of subdued GDP growth than indicative of the strong rebound many in the residential sector hoped for.

• Chain Store Sales
• Chain store sales rose 0.7% in the week ending March 10, and year-over-year growth improved to 2.1% from a multi-year low the previous week.

• Retail Sales (MARTS)
• Total retail sales increased a slight 0.1% in February, in line with our forecast, but modestly below expectations. Non-auto sales fell 0.1%, as sales at auto dealers made a larger than expected contribution. Year-over-year growth rose to 3.2% in total and 3.1% excluding autos. Growth was led by gasoline stations, nonstore retailers, and auto dealers.

• Quarterly Services Survey
• In the fourth quarter of 2006, the information industry reported over-the-year revenue increases of 7.5%. Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services revenue increased by 3.2%, and professional, scientific and technical revenue was up 7.5% over the year. Revenues in selected healthcare services increased by 6.0%.

• Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
• According to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, employers in all of the 27 countries surveyed expect to add staff in the second quarter of 2007. Hiring intentions recovered in the U.S. with the net employment outlook indicating that 21% (not seasonally adjusted) of employers expect to increase hiring, compared to 12% in the previous quarter. In the Asia Pacific, the employment outlook remains positive, with more employers (except in India) expressing intentions to hire. A similar situation is observed in the euro area, where in most countries there is an increase in the number of employers expecting to hire compared to the previous quarter.

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
• The job openings rate was unchanged in January at 3.1%. Similarly, the hire rate was unchanged at 3.6% as was the total separation rate, at 3.3%. This confirms that labor market conditions remain relatively stable and the spillover from the housing market and manufacturing has been limited.

• Business Inventories (MTIS)
• Total business inventories were up 0.2%, in line with consensus expectations. Inventories at retailers were up 0.2% for the month. Total business sales fell by 0.7%. The total I/S ratio rose to 1.30.

• Oil and Gas Inventories
• Crude oil inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels for the week ending March 9, according to the Energy Information Administration, below the 1.6 million barrel build expected. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels, in line with expectations. Refinery activity fell further. Distillate inventories fell 2.8 million barrels, above the 2.0 million barrel draw expected. Overall, this report is broadly in line with expectations, and will have minimal effect on prices.

• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• Underground storage of natural gas decreased by 115 billion cubic feet during the week ending March 9. This was in line with expectations calling for a draw of 114 Bcf. Inventories are now 11.6% above the five-year average. This report will have a neutral effect on prices.

Source: Economy.com, Financial Times