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Game Changing Outcomes!

Baseball, Moneyball(R) and WorkersComp

  

Executive Update 

 


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Game Changing Outcomes
Baseball, MoneyBall and WorkersComp

 

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Greetings! 

 

Baseball, invented in 1869, has been watched and/or played by very nearly every American in some form or another for the past 140 plus years. 

  

Strikeouts, base hits, homeruns are measures with which everyone is familiar. Baseball cards publish the key statistics for every major league player...hits, runs, at bats, batting average for fielders and wins, losses, strikeouts for pitchers.

 

What more can we ask for? Certainly that should paint a picture of exceptional players vs. average players giving a team a better chance of winning.

 

That approach held true as the big market teams with large payrolls to acquire hitters and pitchers were able to overpower the competition.

 

Moneyball® and the rules change.

 

Moneyball, now a hit movie, is the story of how the Oakland A's competed at the highest level with the lowest payroll among major league teams.They found that conventional baseball wisdom is often subjective, based on opinion or more generic measures of success.

 

"Statistics such as stolen bases, runs batted in, and batting average, typically used to gauge players, are relics of a 19th century view of the game and the statistics that were available at the time."[1]

 

Rather than rely on these measures, the Oakland A's developed more empirical gauges of player performance to field a team that could compete successfully against richer competitors. Their statistical analysis developed better indicators of success such as, runs created, slugging percentage and on-base percentage.The Oakland A's believed players with these qualities were a better bargain in the market.

 

Moneyball thinking ushered in Sabermetrics (Society for American Baseball Research, acronynm, SABR)

that questioned the old traditions, encouraged the common use and collection of data and strived for improved outcomes based on that data. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are they Balls or Strikes?  

In workers' compensation, employers report injuries and illnesses to their insurance carrier and in turn, to regulatory agencies.  Statistics are presented in the form of loss runs, citing the costs and expected cost.  Focus is on claims over a certain threshold, types of claims, injury repeaters and, of course, the average cost per claim.

  

Yet despite a fall in the frequency of claims, the costs continue to rise. Only a very few capture height and weight in order to calculate a potential Body Mass Index (BMI)...a key ingredient in understanding possible co-morbidities in a claim. 

  

Are we measuring strikes or balls?

  

By focusing on common data elements and Moneyball philosophy, it is now possible to offer analytics for all on an extremely cost effective basis.

  

Going back to baseball, we see in this example by analyzing every at bat in every inning in every game from 1961 to 1977, the expected future runs that can be scored in a given inning.

Baseball Stats

Expected Future Runs Scored

  

Let's take that same example and apply it to workers compensation claims.  We can see how expected return to work is impacted by the effects of claim characteristics at different intervals.   Much in the same way that a runner wants to advance to second to improve running scoring potential, in workers compensation, not only do we want to intervene in a claim sooner, but develop strategies to neutralize negative impacting characteristics.

RTW Stats

Expected RTW (sample)

 

Read the entire Executive Update: Game Changing Outcomes. 

 COMING SOON:

In mid-September, all dashboard views with metrics, benchmarks and KPIs will be tablet and IPad(R) ready.  

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You are invited to join the Clearinghouse effort and benefit from our Analytics for All approach from Benchmarking to KPIs and KPPs to Claim Scoring.

 
Cordially,

 


Jim Paugh

President
WorkersComp Analytics LLC

(  617-410-6561  

 

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POSITIVELY IMPACTING CLAIM OUTCOMES