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March 27, 2012

JOBBERSWORLD...MARKET INTELLIGENCE FOR INTELLIGENT MARKETERS...  

 

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Chevron First to Move on Group II
Chevron announced it will increase its base oil prices by $0.20 to $0.25 a gallon. This increase is effective March 28.
Base Oil Price Outlook 
So here we go in what appears to be another round of base oil price increases. It started with naphthenic base oil, then Group I, and now we are looking at Chevron as the first to move in Group IIs.

So what does it mean, where are prices heading? Well if history helps predict the future, we have a good deal to draw from. To start, although there have been some asperities in base oil pricing trends, as shown below, the trend line is up.
 
The chart below forecasts base oil prices looking at historic data from 8/2004 to 3/2012. This time period includes the significant run up and down of base oil prices occurring in 2008 to 2009.  

 



Whereas the chart above may be helpful in predicting base oil prices, more instructive could be the trend in prices prior to the significant rise and fall of base oil prices in 2008/09.  

 

Based on a linear regression of prices from 8/2004 to 3/2008, one would have predicted in 2008 that the price of base oil in March 2012 would be at $4.60 a gallon. That prediction would be about $0.05 a gallon off from the actual price today. Assuming this trend line continues as a good predictor of future prices, base oil price (Group II 100) will reach $5.45 a gallon in Jan 2015, and close to $7.00 a gallon by 2018.  

At the same time, it should be noted that base oil prices may have established a new trend line following the unusual run up and run down in prices that occurred in 2008/09. Since that time, the trend line has inclined. Assuming this is the new trend line, we could be looking at the price of API Group II base oil at $8.00 a gallon by the start of 2015, and just under $11.00 a gallon by 2018.

Forecasting the price of base oil can also be predicted by looking at a polynomial regression from 2004 to current. This analysis draws a smooth line in price progression that takes into account the peaks and valleys along with the linear changes in pricing.

 

Based on this analysis, Group II 100 base oil prices are forecast to reach $8.00 a gallon by 2015, and skyrocket to $11.00 a gallon by 2018.   

 



But no matter how one looks at it, all the data points to a continuing rise in the price of base oils, and therefore, finished lubricants. True, we may see a decline in prices when the expected new capacity comes on stream. And you can be sure intermaterial competition between Groups I, II, III and others will help shape pricing by driving the price of some types and grades up and others down. But if history has taught us anything, these may prove to be no more than bumps in the long road up for base oil prices.


ConocoPhillips Lubricants Introduces New Wireline Lubricant  

Total Ad1 ConocoPhillips, one of the largest U.S. lubricants suppliers, recently announced the availability of its new Wireline Lubricant.  ConocoPhillips' Wireline Lubricant, or grease, is designed to maintain a seal and prevent the escape of wellbore fluids during wireline operations in oil and gas completion services.  The new Wireline Lubricant is a specialized, clear formulation designed specifically for high-pressure, high-temperature wireline environments.

 

"After consulting with industry experts, we are pleased to offer this impressive wireline product that is so versatile," said Sunny Lopez, Director, Industrial Lubricants at ConocoPhillips.  "In addition to its excellent sealing properties and resistance to degradation due to wellbore fluids, it has the added benefits of a unique clear color and resistance to slingage, which help minimize environmental impact.  It truly is a "clear choice" over products available in the market today."

 

ConocoPhillips Lubricants' Wireline Lubricant was developed specifically for high-pressure wireline operations including cased-hole logging, pipe recovery service, production loggings and reservoir analysis.  

 

Wireline Lubricant is available in eight viscosity grades to optimize performance in winter, mid-season and summer operating conditions.  These viscosity grades include ISO 68, ISO 220, ISO 460, ISO 680, ISO 1500, ISO 5000, ISO 7500 and ISO 10000.  

 

Rob Kress Has Joined Chemlube International as Vice President

Total Ad1Rob will concentrate his efforts on expanding Chemlube's domestic base oil and finished lube business, particularly at CL's Savannah blending and terminaling facility, as well as contributing to all aspects of Chemlube's growing business.  

 

He brings over 30 years experience in the Base Oil and Lubricants industry having worked for Coastal Corporation, CITGO Petroleum Corporation and most recently Lubricating Specialties Company. He has held management positions both domestically and internationally in Technology, Sales and Marketing. Rob will work out of the Chemlube office in Harrison, New York.

 

CLASSIFIEDS
 

Lubricating Specialties Company

 

Lubricants and Fluids Sales position in the Central California market

 

Lubricating Specialties Company a well-established, leading blender and packager of oils, greases and industrial fluids on the West Coast, is seeking highly motivated and creative sales candidate.  LSC is seeking to fill a Territory Sales Manager position in the Central California area. The successful candidate will be responsible for outside oil, grease and industrial fluid sales to an existing base of independent Jobbers. Duties will also include expanding the current customer base by adding new accounts and expanding product offerings in those accounts.

 

LSC offers an excellent salary package including commission, health insurance, 401k, fuel and cell phone reimbursement. Qualified candidates may submit resume to: acastillo@lubespecialties.com

 

 

 

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Grade A Petroleum, a leading lubricant distributor in the Greater New York Metropolitan area, is seeking experienced and talented lubricant salespeople to join our team to market several major brands, including BP/Castrol and Conoco/76/Kendall.  Applicants must be skilled in sales to both HDEO and PCEO market segments and willing and able to aggressively develop sales in lower New England, Northern NJ, New York City & Long Island.  Position includes a base salary, benefits, commission & performance spiffs.   

 

Please send resumes to mrobles@gradealube.com, www.gradealube.com.

 

 


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  2012 Petroleum Trends International, Inc.