Agricultural commodities in Texas overall are relatively strong price-wise, especially beef cattle, but after a year of historic drought, the weather must change for the good in 2012 before farmers and ranchers can take advantage of any agricultural strength in the marketplace.

Some of the Texas winter wheat caught some good January rains. But growers know wheat will need more moisture in February and March which often are extremely windy and dry months in the Southwest.

"The winter wheat crop has had a good shot in the arm with the recent moisture events, but it is a long time to spring," says Rick Auckerman, Deaf Smith County Extension agent, Hereford, in the Texas Panhandle.

"There is much discussion on what to plant for this spring: reduced corn acres and making up the acreage with cotton or possibly grain sorghum with the extended forecast being short on rainfall."

Auckerman says winter pastures for stocker cattle are in very short supply, leaving cattlemen to supplement with hay or silage for feed if possible.

"Winter wheat is trying to hold on, but more moisture is needed," says Kevin Brendle, AgriLife Extension agent for Dickens County, east of Lubbock, surrounded by some of Texas' most vast ranching country. "Heavy supplemental feeding is being done on 'remaining' cattle herds. Lots of producers sold most of their cattle in the summer."

"Recent slow rains improved forage growth and greened up pastures," says George Gonzales, Webb County Extension agent, Laredo. Supplemental feeding is common.

But if rain does return, expect some happy ranchers because the price for beef is good.

David P. Anderson, with the Texas AgriLife Extension Service, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, says he expects to see record cattle and calf prices in 2012.

Anderson says the 2012 beef cattle outlook can be summarized as tighter supplies of cows, calves, feeders, and beef overall.

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service economist, Stillwater, says herd rebuilding will take several years. He notes the Southwest drought slowed any rejuvenation of herds and clearly fueled the national decline in the U.S. beef cow inventory going into 2012.

Anderson and Peel agree tighter supplies of beef will set the stage for higher calf, cattle, and beef prices in 2012.

It is a big election year too-after all. And the overall economy is expected to grow-although slowly.

As far as the other big two commodities for Texas after cattle, despite the Texas' short crop in 2011, there's plenty of cotton in the world so far in 2012.

But producers should always keep a close eye on China, as both a competitor or potential customer-with that depending largely on whether the Chinese put priority on cotton or grain production.

Meanwhile, both U.S. and world wheat stocks are higher than usual for the 2011-2012 marketing year. Expect corn prices to set a floor for wheat prices.

And in the end-cattle, cotton, or wheat-rain is going to be needed in Texas in 2012.

The memory of more than 30,000 wildfires burning over 4 million Texas acres in 2011 is still fresh. Without rain, wildfires could be common again in the state this year.

Nobody wants to see a repeat performance of that in the Southwest for 2012-and would like to see La Nina make a graceful exit and El Nino a big return.