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Sovereign Focus
December 2011
Teach. Wealth. Innovation.
Why I'm Optimistic.
You wouldn't know it by watching the television or listening to the radio, but there are signs that the economy is (slowly) improving. Don't believe me? Here are some points to consider...
The Economy is Adding Jobs Again.
Hiring is not robust, but we are now seeing employment start to turn upward again. This includes an uptick in manufacturing data. See the chart below courtesy of BusinessInsider.com.
Job Losses Chart
The Unemployment Rate is Falling.
Our unemployment rate currently stands at 8.6%. While this is not full employment, it is well below the peak of 10.1% experienced during 2009. As companies slowly return to hiring, this rate should fall over time.
Companies are Coming Back.
Since 2005, the Chinese Yuan has appreciated over 30% versus the US dollar. This combined with other factors has made outsourcing less attractive. Companies from Dell to Citigroup to Monster.com to Toyota have begun to bring manufacturing and services back to the USA. This reflects an effort to improve service, a lack of projected savings from outsourced activities, and increased transport and fuel costs.
Railroad Car Traffic is Rising.
One of the best indicators of an economy on the mend is an increase in railroad car traffic volume. This indicates an expectation of retailers and producers that the economy is improving. November 2011 rail traffic was up 2.3% from Nov 2010 levels and a whopping 7.6% from Nov 2009.
A Euro Collapse Looks Less Likely.
It appears less likely that both Germany and France will allow the European Union to fail. While I acknowledge that political events are tough to predict, the majority of the bad news from Europe is most likely baked in at this point.
The Housing Market is Stabilizing.
Despite the pessimism, it was recently reported that in 12 major housing markets it is now cheaper to own a house than rent. This indicates a return to historical norms and an indication that the worst may be past in the housing market.
Aggressive Debt Reduction.
The Federal Reserve November 2011 Household Debt & Credit Report showed reduction in consumer debt at virtually every level. Mortgage balances, student loans, credit cards, and personal debts fell at all levels. More importantly, it reinforces the recent trend that consumers are taking their debt reduction seriously.
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