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Flu reaching 'epidemic' proportions?
- Expert responds
27 July 2012
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Claims that an influenza epidemic of swine flu proportions are set to overwhelm the country are overblown, according to virologists at the National Influenza Centre.
Media reports that a 'new strain' of influenza -- H3N2 -- causing hallucinations and crippling nausea, is heading north from Canterbury, and that flu admissions are at 'epidemic' levels, are out-of-step with the latest surveillance data released yesterday.
ESR's weekly influenza report shows that the current levels of influenza admissions are at 'normal' and 'baseline' levels throughout the country.
A full copy of the report is available on the ESR website [PDF]. Dr Sue Huang is a virologist at ESR and Director of New Zealand's World Health Organisation (WHO) National Influenza Centre. She comments:
"I do not believe this year's influenza activity will reach an 'epidemic as big as swine flu' [ as claimed]. This is because the current predominant influenza strain is A(H3N2). These viruses do not appear to be anything extraordinary and they have not changed as much as the swine flu did.
"We are tracking within range of a typical flu season. In fact, the speed of the increase of the influenza activity this week is slower than last week. This week's influenza -like illness consultation rate is just a third of the 2009 pandemic peak. (108.5 per 100 000 population this week vs 284 per 100 000 during the 2009 pandemic peak).
"I would not call the A(H3N2) virus a new strain yet, since although some minor genetic changes might have occurred, it is still quite similar to the vaccine strain (A/Perth/16/2009) antigenically. This means that the vaccine would still offer significant protection. "Influenza vaccination is the most effective means of preventing influenza related illness and it is highly recommended." |
More information
To follow up with Dr Huang and other influenza experts, contact the Science Media Centre on (04) 499 5476, or smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz
Note to editors
The Science Media Centre (NZ) is an independent source of expert comment and information for journalists covering science and technology in New Zealand. Our aim is to promote accurate, evidence-based reporting on science and technology by helping the media work more closely with the scientific community. The SMC (NZ) is an independent centre established by the Royal Society of New Zealand with funding from the Ministry of Science + Innovation. The views expressed in this Science Alert are those of the individuals and organisations indicated and do not reflect the views of the SMC or its employees. For further information about the centre, or to offer feedback, please email us at smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz.
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