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First Quarter 2008
 
In This Issue
Credit Markets Show Signs of Strain
Stock Market Follows Suit
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 Credit Markets Show Signs of Strain
by Tim Waymire

The yield on the ten year U.S. Treasury note trended lower during the first quarter from approximately 4% to near 3½% at quarter-end. While this statement may technically be accurate, it vastly understates what transpired during the first three months of this year as far as the credit markets are concerned. The Federal Reserve Board continued to lower rates, both at scheduled as well as unscheduled meetings, in their effort to provide additional monetary stimulus. Treasury yields responded as expected, with the additional aid of some flight to quality buying, and rates moved lower.

 

However, most other sectors of the bond market were under extreme stress and in isolated cases ceased to function normally. The main culprit for much of this turmoil is the continuing fallout from the deteriorating mortgage market. The stress was evidenced in the expanding yield spreads, or yield differential, on virtually any other sector when compared to the "riskless" U.S. Treasury yields. This heightened perceived risk also affected the liquidity in the marketplace. Bear Stearns found this out the hard way as their counterparties eventually refused to provide the daily funding needed to continue to operate and the Federal Reserve had to engineer a rescue with the help of J.P. Morgan. The use of the word "unprecedented" became very popular in describing the various calamities endured by the bond markets during this period.

 

Unprecedented is a very apt description of what has happened in what was a quiet corner of the tax exempt market. Auction rate securities have been utilized by municipalities for decades as a very efficient way to fund a variety of projects. The securities themselves are actually long term borrowings and were often insured by one of the monoline insurance companies and thus carried the highest rating available. However, the unique aspect of these bonds was the funding mechanism. Auctions were held either weekly or monthly and, depending on supply and demand, the interest rate was established for the next week or month. Therefore, even though the bonds were long term, the interest rate was more indicative of short term rates. The appeal to investors was the money market like liquidity combined with a slightly higher yield. This arrangement worked like a charm for many years, until the aforementioned mortgage market struggles began to impact the insurance companies who had rated the auction rate securities. As the ratings agencies began to downgrade the insurance companies, the demand for these securities seemed to evaporate. The result was what brokerage firms euphemistically called "failed auctions".  In layman's terms, these bonds that had enjoyed money market like liquidity suddenly enjoyed no liquidity. The auction rate market has essentially ceased to function as intended and those holding the securities are not able to sell them or redeem them. The effect of these failed auctions on the broader tax exempt market has been significant and presents a buying opportunity in our opinion.

 

Municipal bond yields across the entire maturity spectrum are currently higher than those offered on U.S. Treasury securities. This is highly unusual since the income from municipal bonds is tax exempt and the income earned on Treasury securities is taxable, at least at the federal level. Normally, because of the tax advantaged nature of the income, the yield on municipal bonds is less than that offered by taxable alternatives. For this reason, we believe high quality, intermediate term municipal bonds represent attractive investments for portfolios where appropriate. The biggest challenge we have found is availability, as there have been few new issues and the secondary market is very sparse.   

 

 

Stock Market Follows Suit
by Fred Taylor

The first quarter of 2008 was the worst quarter for the S&P 500 since the third quarter of 2002, down 9.4% including dividends.  There was no shortage of bad news for the markets and by all real measures at the end of the day on January 23rd the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ were in bear market territory.   The market continues to be extremely volatile as it went up or down one percent 54% of the time in the first three months of the year, making it the most volatile year since 1938.  Whether the US economy is in recession or not is a moot point, the housing market across the country is down 11% and banks continue to take massive write downs from bad sub-prime loans.  However, the Federal Reserve is trying to help calm the markets and has made unprecedented moves to help assuage the credit crisis on Wall Street.  They helped JP Morgan bail out Bear Stearns and is allowing investment banks to borrow directly from the Fed which hasn't been done since the depression in the 1930's.

 

With all the negative newspaper headlines and market volatility it's a confusing time to be investing.  However, every bear market creates an opportunity to invest when credit spreads widen in relationship to dividend yields and markets are down significantly.

 

As the Federal Reserve continues to cut the Fed Funds (short term) interest rate, currently at 2.25%, to below 2% money market funds will be adjusted downward to perhaps 1%. At the same time this is happening there is an opportunity to buy excellent large cap multinational blue chip companies in the US which are offering dividend yields of 4-7%, not to mention these companies also benefit when the US dollar is weak, as it is now.

 

At Northstar we are looking to add money to these types of companies to capture this dividend yield and wait out the bear market.  Once the markets turn positive again these companies will rise because they are cheap relative to Treasury bond yields.

 
 

Please be sure to visit our website at www.northstarinvest.com for links to Northstar in the news. For reprints of the articles referenced, please call or send us an email at Northstar@northstarinvest.com Our team has been working hard to add to the ways that we can help you achieve your financial planning and investment objectives.

Northstar Investment Advisors, LLC

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group of 6
       Moses Taylor          Dick Kopp    Fred Taylor     Tim Waymire    Bob Van Wetter  Charlie Farrell